LU9DCE > ALERT 08.03.25 20:57z 76 Lines 2773 Bytes #6 (0) @ WW
BID : 6210_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-FEB25
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250221/1030Z 6210@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI FEB 21 05:35:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI FEB 21 05:35:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI FEB 21 05:35:02 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI FEB 21 05:35:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC FEB 21, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY COLD AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
U.S., AND MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DEEPER
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AWAY FROM
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD, LEAVING SPLIT WESTERLIES IN ITS WAKE,
DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INLAND OF THE
PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN U.S. GREAT
PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, ONE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION, EMERGING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN, IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
TOWARD THE MID SOUTH VICINITY, WHILE ANOTHER DIGS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES. THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SLOWLY
MODIFYING REMNANTS OF EXPANSIVE, SEASONABLY COLD SURFACE RIDGING
INITIALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AS
WELL AS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TRAILING
IMPULSE, IT APPEARS THAT A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING OFF A MODIFYING SOUTHWESTERN GULF BOUNDARY
LAYER. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS, IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A
SUBSTANTIAL COLD SURFACE-BASED LAYER, AND BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM
AND CAPPING LAYERS FURTHER ALOFT.
..KERR/HALBERT.. 02/21/2025
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