LU9DCE > ALERT 13.04.25 04:45z 75 Lines 3126 Bytes #42 (0) @ WW
BID : 273_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-APR25
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<VE3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 250413/0430Z 273@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN APR 13 00:50:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN APR 13 00:50:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN APR 13 00:50:02 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN APR 13 00:50:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 201200Z
A DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL
RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ON D3/MONDAY FROM
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
BY D4/TUESDAY, GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL TRANSPORT MOMENTUM
DOWNWARD INTO A WARM, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM BAJA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. ON D5/WEDNESDAY,
A SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
BENEATH GENERALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHTENED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HEADING INTO D6/THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INTENSIFYING 500MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING OF THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESPONSE IN SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD 20-25 MPH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS, EASTERN
NEW MEXICO, AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT
OR BELOW 10%. FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR D6/THURSDAY MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO
70% CRITICAL PENDING CONTINUED FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLES. WHILE SOME FIRE-WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO
D7/FRIDAY AND D8/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PREDICTABILITY
IS TOO LOW FOR ANY HIGHLIGHT AREAS AT THIS TIME.
..HALBERT.. 04/12/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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