LU9DCE > ALERT 16.04.25 04:45z 118 Lines 4182 Bytes #45 (0) @ WW
BID : 423_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-APR25
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250416/0430Z 423@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED APR 16 00:57:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED APR 16 00:57:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED APR 16 00:57:02 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED APR 16 00:57:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC APR 16, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF THE
SIERRA MOUNTAINS AND IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NO SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE U.S.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AHEAD OF THE
LOW, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS, AND FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., NO SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
..BROYLES.. 04/16/2025
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SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH DAY
5/SATURDAY, BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH
JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY
3/THURSDAY, BEFORE THREAT BECOMES MORE CONFINED BY DAY 4/FRIDAY AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AS A MODEST
DOWNSLOPE REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE.
...DAY 3/THURSDAY...
HIGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUGGEST A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A CONSIDERABLE SYNOPTIC
FIRE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY
LOWLAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS. THE METEOROLOGICAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL OVERLAP WITH PERSISTENT DRY FUELS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH SOME GREEN-UP IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ACTING TO MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.
...DAY 4/FRIDAY...
MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD WHILE A COLD
FRONT INTRUDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
...DAY 5/SATURDAY THROUGH DAY 8/TUESDAY...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WANE OVERALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW DIMINISHES. THERE COULD BE SOME DOWNSLOPE WIND CONCERNS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN SCOPE AND AREA.
..WILLIAMS/MOORE.. 04/15/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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