ED1ZAC - READ ALERT 21

LU9DCE > ALERT 20.05.25 07:45z 696 Lines 20763 Bytes #80 (0) @ WW BID : 3160_LU9DCE Read: GUEST Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-MAY25 Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE Sent: 250520/0730Z 3160@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24 __ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____ ( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___) / (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/ PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM) PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN) COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ SPC TORNADO WATCH 298 WW 298 TORNADO IL MO 200125Z - 200800Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS. AN INTENSE/BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A GREATER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS, WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 70-80 MPH ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL UP TO 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MO TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 294...WW 295...WW 296...WW 297... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...GLEASON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 297 WW 297 TORNADO AR OK TX 192350Z - 200700Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 650 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND A COUPLE OF THESE SHOULD BE STRONG TO INTENSE (EF2-3+). SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS. PEAK GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 70-80 MPH. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5-3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALSO APPEARS LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT OK TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON AR. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...WW 296... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...GLEASON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 298 STATUS REPORTS WW 0298 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 298 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE FLP TO 35 W FAM TO 25 SW STL TO 35 S UIN. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-013-027-051-055-061-077-081-083-087-117-119-121-133- 135-145-153-157-163-181-189-199-200440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-099-123-133-143-149-157-163-173-179- 181-183-186-187-189-201-203-207-221-223-510-200440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON MADISON MISSISSIPPI READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 297 STATUS REPORTS WW 0297 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 297 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ADM TO 40 WNW DEQ TO 25 SW FLP TO 20 WSW UNO. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 297 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-051-057-061-063-065-067-071-075-081-083- 089-091-097-101-105-109-113-115-121-127-129-133-135-137-141-145- 147-149-200440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL OKC013-023-089-200440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296 STATUS REPORTS WW 0296 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N STJ TO 30 NNW LWD TO 35 N OTM. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-039-051-053-117-123-125-135-159-179-185-200340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD WAPELLO WAYNE MOC001-041-053-079-081-089-115-121-129-171-175-197-211-200340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER GRUNDY HARRISON HOWARD LINN MACON MERCER PUTNAM RANDOLPH SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 295 STATUS REPORTS WW 0295 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PRX TO 35 N FTW TO 35 SW ADM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892 ..WEINMAN..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC097-147-181-277-200240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON LAMAR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 294 STATUS REPORTS WW 0294 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SZL TO 30 W SZL TO 25 W OJC TO 20 NE FLV TO 25 SE SDA. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-209-200340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON WYANDOTTE MOC003-025-033-047-049-061-063-075-095-101-107-117-147-159-177- 195-227-200340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON NODAWAY PETTIS RAY SALINE WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 293 STATUS REPORTS WW 0293 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW BIE TO 30 NNE LNK TO 15 WSW TQE. ..BROYLES..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-200140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-155-177-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 292 STATUS REPORTS WW 0292 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 ..WEINMAN..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-192340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041- 047-049-051-053-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087- 091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-192340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 895 MD 0895 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 297...298... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN ILLINOIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297...298... VALID 200342Z - 200545Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 297, 298 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 297. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, LOCATED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF ST LOUIS. AHEAD OF THE LINE, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP, WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE RAP HAS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WHICH IS SAMPLED BY THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP, WHICH HAS 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING, WITH THE THREAT MAXIMIZED WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS, WHERE WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED. ..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 05/20/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34419338 34309273 34359183 34589111 35229043 36138977 37748917 38648909 39198953 39299038 39179094 39019118 38809137 38379149 37929170 37169193 36589223 35759294 35069376 34699380 34419338 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 894 MD 0894 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 294... FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST MISSOURI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294... VALID 200158Z - 200400Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 294 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE RAP SHOWS A 40 TO 45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI, WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT. AHEAD OF THE LINE AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F, AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS BOWING LINE SEGMENT. HOWEVER, AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO DOWNTREND. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38669441 38659306 39029238 39889230 40319266 40469379 40399460 39989507 39609516 39109507 38669441 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC CENTER PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (PWO) PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... * LOCATIONS... WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS MISSOURI FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS * HAZARDS... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL, SOME BASEBALL SIZE * SUMMARY... A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. STRONG TORNADOES, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATHS, AND VERY LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORNADOES AT NIGHT CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO SEE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY, IDEALLY IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MAY 20, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. STRONG TORNADOES, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATHS, AND VERY LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ...TX/OK TO THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY... WHILE EXTENSIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, THERE ARE SEVERAL PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE GREATEST TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST WITH A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED QLCS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE RED RIVER. WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS PORTION OF THE QLCS, STRONG TORNADO AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. DESPITE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED WEST, THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE QLCS SUGGESTS THAT EMBEDDED WIND GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH COULD PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATH THAT MAY PERSIST EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED OUTLOOK CATEGORIES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE QLCS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ACCELERATE EAST, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BACK WEST WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK TONIGHT. THIS COULD POSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. ...KS AND THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING. BUT SIMILAR TO THE OK REDEVELOPMENT, POST-DRYLINE/FRONTAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST AND LIKELY IMPINGE ON LINGERING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS. THIS COULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 05/20/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
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