ED1ZAC - READ ALERT 22

LU9DCE > ALERT 16.07.25 07:45z 530 Lines 13797 Bytes #137 (0) @ WW BID : 6890_LU9DCE Read: GUEST Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUL Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<GB7BED<GB7YEW<LU9DCE Sent: 250716/0730Z 6890@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24 __ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____ ( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___) / (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/ +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM) JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN) COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516 WW 516 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MN NE 160140Z - 160800Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 840 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EASTERN NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL NEAR 1 INCH DIAMETER. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF WORTHINGTON MN TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514...WW 515... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030. ...THOMPSON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515 WW 515 SEVERE TSTM WY 152230Z - 160400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 430 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL 1000 PM MDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIVERTON WY TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CASPER WY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025. ...THOMPSON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514 WW 514 SEVERE TSTM KS NE SD 152050Z - 160400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR CLUSTERS. SEVERE GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD DURING THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHAMBERLAIN SD TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025. ...SMITH READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516 STATUS REPORTS WW 0516 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GRI TO 15 NW TQE TO 30 WNW SLB TO 30 SSW OTG TO 25 ENE FSD. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-129-133-141-143-155-160440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH MNC101-105-133-160440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MURRAY NOBLES ROCK READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515 STATUS REPORTS WW 0515 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CPR TO 20 E CPR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 515 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/04Z. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC025-160400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NATRONA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514 STATUS REPORTS WW 0514 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE GLD TO 25 NNW MCK TO 30 SSE BBW TO 20 ENE BUB TO 25 NNW OFK. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC137-147-160340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NORTON PHILLIPS NEC001-011-019-037-039-041-043-047-051-061-063-065-073-077-079- 083-087-093-099-119-121-125-137-139-141-145-163-167-175-179-183- 160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BUFFALO COLFAX CUMING CUSTER DAKOTA DAWSON DIXON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY MADISON MERRICK NANCE PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE RED WILLOW SHERMAN STANTON VALLEY WAYNE READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513 STATUS REPORTS WW 0513 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EAU TO 35 ENE IWD TO 30 NNE MQT. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC013-053-071-103-131-160240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARAGA GOGEBIC IRON MARQUETTE ONTONAGON WIC099-107-125-160240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PRICE RUSK VILAS LSZ248-160240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 1683 MD 1683 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... VALID 160345Z - 160545Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING, BUT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, WHICH COULD STILL SPORADICALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2 AM CDT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA VICINITY. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES (2-4+ MB 2-HOURLY) HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED WITHIN THE COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING THE SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD POOL ACROSS THE NORFOLK, COLUMBUS, GRAND ISLAND, HASTINGS, KEARNEY AND LEXINGTON VICINITIES OF NEBRASKA. THE MORE INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DISPLACED ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE GUST FRONT, AND NOW APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED WITHIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION, ON THE NOSE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING, COUPLED WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER NEAR SURFACE UPDRAFT INFLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, A CORRIDOR OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLANKING THE MISSOURI RIVER VICINITY MIGHT PROMOTE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO 05-07Z TIME FRAME, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS. ..KERR.. 07/16/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40769781 41249726 41469664 41779617 42099594 41709482 40689486 40239492 39579573 39949661 40029745 40139852 40769781 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC JUL 16, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS (SOME 75+ MPH) AND LARGE HAIL ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO UTAH AND WYOMING THROUGH MID-EVENING. ...SD/NE... AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NE. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCT SEVERAL REPORTS OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. THIS QLCS WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST NE, WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. REFERENCE MCD #1679 AND WW #514 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...NORTHERN WY/WESTERN UPPER MI... A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WI/UPPER MI STATE LINE. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND ARE PROBABLY PAST-PEAK. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. REFERENCE WW #513 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...WY... SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY. THE STRONGEST CELLS IN THIS AREA WILL MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL DIURNAL COOLING DIMINISHES THE THREAT. REFERENCE WW #515 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...SOUTHEAST AZ... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST AZ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. REFERENCE MCD #1680 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ..HART.. 07/16/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ JAVA - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 4.1
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