ED1ZAC - READ ALERT 23

LU9DCE > ALERT 18.07.25 07:45z 335 Lines 8934 Bytes #139 (0) @ WW BID : 6986_LU9DCE Read: GUEST Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-JUL Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<GB7BED<GB7YEW<LU9DCE Sent: 250718/0731Z 6986@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24 __ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____ ( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___) / (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/ +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM) JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN) COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 WW 523 SEVERE TSTM MT 180250Z - 180800Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 850 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM UNTIL 200 AM MDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...TWO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THESE STORMS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST OF MILES CITY MT TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAKER MT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030. ...HART READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522 WW 522 SEVERE TSTM MT 172130Z - 180400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 330 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL 1000 PM MDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GREAT FALLS MT TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW MT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 521... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030. ...HART READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 STATUS REPORTS WW 0523 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 523 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/18/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 523 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-025-079-087-103-180440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALLON PRAIRIE ROSEBUD TREASURE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522 STATUS REPORTS WW 0522 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BIL TO 65 SW GGW TO 65 NNW GGW. ..DEAN..07/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-055-105-180440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD MCCONE VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521 STATUS REPORTS WW 0521 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 521 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LEB TO 20 SW EFK TO 10 ESE EFK TO 75 NNE EFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 ..WENDT..07/17/25 ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 521 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-007-017-021-025-172340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK FRANKLIN OXFORD PISCATAQUIS SOMERSET NHC003-007-009-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL COOS GRAFTON VTC005-009-017-019-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALEDONIA ESSEX ORANGE READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI JUL 18 03:24:08 UTC 2025 NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI JUL 18 03:24:08 UTC 2025. =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC JUL 18, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MT TO FAR SOUTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. ...NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... A COUPLE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH A HISTORY OF MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES PER MRMS MESH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING AMID STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BUT WEAK BUOYANCY AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER THE 00Z GGW SOUNDING. MOST GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE RRFS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE EVENTUALLY WANING AS IT IMPINGES ON MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. WITH SUCH A COOL AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT INTO ND, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAK MUCAPE MARGINALIZING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A SLOW-MOVING, LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER IS ONGOING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST NM. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL, IT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE (PER THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING), AMID PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTER MAINTENANCE THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WANING OVERNIGHT. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD (PER WPC ERO SLGT RISK), A FEW STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ...NORTHERN ME... CONVECTION HAS LARGELY WANED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH SOME LINGERING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ME, A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STILL SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PER THE CBW VWP) MAY SUPPORT A WEAKLY ROTATING STORM OR TWO BEFORE CONVECTION SPREADS ENTIRELY INTO NB. ...EASTERN OK TO THE DELMARVA... A COUPLE MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR IN YET TO BE OVERTURNED AREAS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH FROM THE OZARKS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING, SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE. ..GRAMS.. 07/18/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ JAVA - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 4.1
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