LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.25 07:45z 128 Lines 4363 Bytes #145 (0) @ WW
BID : 7405_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JUL
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250724/0731Z 7405@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 24 03:57:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 24 03:57:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC MD 1768
MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... FOR LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539...
VALID 240228Z - 240430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO EXTREME WESTERN IOWA. NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS GROWN UPSCALE AND MATURED INTO
AN MCS OVER EASTERN NE EARLY THIS EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX IS LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW539. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAX EXHIBITS
SUBSTANTIAL PW (~2 INCHES), STRONG BUOYANCY, BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. WITH AN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EASILY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MO RIVER, POTENTIALLY SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS IA. WHILE
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS THIS REGION, GREATEST SEVERE
RISK SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS, AND MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE, AND A NEW WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY PLANNED.
..DARROW.. 07/24/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 42069790 42489556 41289519 40839764 42069790
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 24, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MI...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LOWER MI...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL NE
INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA. VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG BUOYANCY REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF A COMPOSITE
FRONT/OUTFLOW, THOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IS RELATIVELY MODEST
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY,
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER CLUSTERS OR BOWING SEGMENTS (LIKE THE ONE
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NE) BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE LARGER REGION
OF ONGOING CONVECTION. ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
FARTHER EAST, A WELL-DEFINED BOWING STORM CLUSTER IS MOVING ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DECREASING BUOYANCY
AND INCREASING CINH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
A WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT SOME THREAT FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING STORMS APPROACHING THE NE PANHANDLE SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME AS THEY ENCOUNTER DECREASING INSTABILITY, THOUGH LOCALIZED
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING. FARTHER
WEST, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND VICINITY THIS EVENING, WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
BUT FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
..DEAN.. 07/24/2025
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