ED1ZAC - READ ALERT 28

LU9DCE > ALERT 10.08.25 07:45z 435 Lines 12804 Bytes #162 (0) @ WW BID : 8505_LU9DCE Read: GUEST Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-AUG Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE Sent: 250810/0730Z 8505@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24 __ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____ ( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___) / (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/ +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM) JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN) COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582 WW 582 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE 100145Z - 100900Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 845 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID-EVENING (845 PM CDT) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND ORGANIZE, POTENTIALLY INTO A BOWING LINEAR COMPLEX. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD (EAST) OF IT AND ALSO INTENSIFY WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY KS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 581... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...GUYER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581 WW 581 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 091955Z - 100300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900 PM MDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF LIMON CO TO 65 MILES NORTH OF IMPERIAL NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...HART READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582 STATUS REPORTS WW 0582 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-100440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC027-029-051-055-063-065-071-075-083-089-093-101-105-117-123- 131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-157-161-163-165-167-171-183-195- 201-203-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN JEWELL KEARNY LANE LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NESS NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SMITH READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581 STATUS REPORTS WW 0581 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 1918 MD 1918 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 100313Z - 100515Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TRAINING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW 581 HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN. DISCUSSION...TRAINING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE COLORADO SPRINGS, CO AREA TO THE NORTH OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT. VWP DATA FROM KPUX SHOW PRONOUNCED VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM, SUGGESTING THAT ASCENT OVER THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STRONG AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM (NEXT 1-2 HOURS) BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER BUOYANCY IN PLACE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO. 0-6 KM BWD VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION EASTWARD IS POSSIBLE AS CONTINUED TRAINING PROMOTES STORM INTERACTIONS/UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A HIGHER MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST, BUT EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MOORE.. 08/10/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38080320 38160441 38350469 38640481 38860476 39010460 39060419 38970311 38880282 38730269 38540260 38420260 38210268 38090289 38080320 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 1917 MD 1917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...582... FOR NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...582... VALID 100253Z - 100500Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581, 582 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DISCUSSION...KGLD REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60-70 MPH GUSTS, AND WHILE COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION/ORGANIZATION REMAINS A SLOW PROCESS, MRMS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERIODIC UPTICKS IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO A MORE BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG. RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WELL AND SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL BUOYANCY AND WIND SHEAR (EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS). IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD SUCH WINDS WILL BE GIVEN THE SLOW UPSCALE GROWTH, BUT NARROW CORRIDORS OF SEVERE WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE. ..MOORE.. 08/10/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39500150 39760088 40519998 40589976 40579735 40319715 39989728 39679749 39429778 39269813 39069882 39070064 39130121 39180154 39310160 39500150 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC AUG 10, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2025 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF IA/MO/IL... WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MOIST LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS ACROSS EASTERN CO THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. FARTHER EAST, ONGOING CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE AND KS, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN KS. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND MODERATE MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES ATOP LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40-50 KT) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STORM CLUSTERING AND MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY NEAR/ABOVE 75 MPH. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING IS NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE VICINITY, SUPPORTED BY A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT COULD EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME CLUSTERING OF INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS, AND/OR MAINTENANCE OF A POSSIBLE MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND ACROSS EASTERN NE/NORTHEAST KS INTO PARTS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO. FINALLY, STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHERN IL, WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. RECENT HRRR/RRFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT, IF AN MCS DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IT MAY REACH AS FAR AS EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...SOUTHEAST AZ... A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AZ, WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND LATER THIS EVENING. ..DEAN.. 08/10/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ JAVA - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 4.1
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