LU9DCE > ALERT    15.08.25 07:45z 72 Lines 2485 Bytes #167 (0) @ WW
BID : 8788_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-AUG
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 250815/0731Z 8788@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24

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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI AUG 15 03:46:01 UTC 2025

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI AUG 15 03:46:01 UTC 2025.

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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI AUG 15 03:46:01 UTC 2025

NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI AUG 15 03:46:01 UTC
2025.

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SPC AUG 15, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SK/NORTHEAST MT, SHIFTING EAST IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN MB BY 15/06Z, WITH
THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER
RED RIVER REGION LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MB/NORTHWEST ON,
BUT TRAILING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER IS
WEAK/SHALLOW. EVEN SO, WITH TIME ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ABR EXHIBITED SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING NEAR 800MB, BUT MLCAPE WAS APPRECIABLE WITH ~3500 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY, 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO STRONG, AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE
FOR SUPERCELLS. FRONTAL ASCENT WILL LIKELY AID CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING, AND EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE
REMAIN.

..DARROW.. 08/15/2025


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