LU9DCE > ALERT 17.08.25 07:45z 144 Lines 5486 Bytes #170 (0) @ WW
BID : 8943_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-AUG
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250817/0730Z 8943@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 17 03:26:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 17 03:26:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC MD 1970
MD 1970 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN
WYOMING...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 170323Z - 170530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE (MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG) AND SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED (ESHR AROUND 35 KNOTS) TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS DRIVEN BY
INTERNAL MCS DYNAMICS. THAT SAID, THIS EVENING'S 00Z UNR (RAPID
CITY, SD) SOUNDING SAMPLED SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 08/17/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 43650119 43030270 43170406 43910496 44810497 45790423
46750148 46680021 45889966 44979935 44219963 43650119
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 17, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A SWATH OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MORE SPORADIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO GREAT LAKES VICINITY.
...01Z UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PERTURBATION SHIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MODEST MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND/OR WEAKENING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND WEAK MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, THE PROBABILITIES FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A SUSTAINED
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTER APPEAR TO BE LOWERING. HOWEVER, WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW, AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DUBUQUE IA VICINITY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY, IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL PROFILES
APPEAR RELATIVELY WARM, A PLUME OF DRY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL IN SPORADIC STRONGER STORMS.
UPSTREAM, ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY, AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER,
PERHAPS AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THIS OCCURS, ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK, MODEST SHEAR
AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
..KERR.. 08/17/2025
READ MORE
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