LU9DCE > ALERT 20.08.25 07:45z 76 Lines 2663 Bytes #173 (0) @ WW
BID : 9163_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-AUG
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250820/0730Z 9163@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED AUG 20 01:31:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED AUG 20 01:31:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED AUG 20 01:31:01 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED AUG 20 01:31:01 UTC
2025.
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SPC AUG 20, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP WITH A CONSOLIDATING CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...01Z UPDATE...
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE BITTERROOTS
VICINITY, WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION ALSO EVIDENT TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MONTANA, BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND CUT BANK.
ALTHOUGH THE HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS EVOLVED
ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS ONLY CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CAPE, MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION
WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A CONSOLIDATING CLUSTER, IN THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD-BEARING LAYER MEAN FLOW STRENGTHENING TO 30-40+
KT. EVEN WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. AS CONVECTION
APPROACHES BETTER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE HAVRE VICINITY
BY LATE EVENING, MORE UNSTABLE UPDRAFT INFLOW MIGHT SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
..KERR.. 08/20/2025
READ MORE
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