LU9DCE > ALERT 08.03.25 20:59z 330 Lines 10402 Bytes #6 (0) @ WW
BID : 6762_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-MAR25
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250304/1030Z 6762@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 17
WW 17 TORNADO OK TX 040335Z - 041100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WITH
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK AS WELL.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ALVA OK TO
30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16
WW 16 SEVERE TSTM KS 040310Z - 040900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF MEDICINE LODGE KS TO 70 MILES EAST OF WICHITA KS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24030.
...GUYER
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 17 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0017 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CDS TO
15 E CSM TO 40 SW END TO 40 NW PNC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126.
..LEITMAN..03/04/25
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-015-017-019-027-031-033-047-049-051-053-055-065-067-069-
071-073-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-
141-149-040640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE
COTTON GARFIELD GARVIN
GRADY GRANT GREER
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253-
275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040640-
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0016 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AVK
TO 15 NNE HUT.
..LEITMAN..03/04/25
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-019-035-049-077-079-095-155-173-191-040640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY
ELK HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN RENO SEDGWICK
SUMNER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC MD 126
MD 0126 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 17... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK INTO
NORTH/CENTRAL TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST MON MAR 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH/CENTRAL
TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...
VALID 040531Z - 040730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN OK CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST AT AROUND 30-40 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
BEEN ORGANIZED GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS
LARGELY REMAINED ELEVATED GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW SEVERE GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED. FURTHERMORE, A FEW LINE-EMBEDDED CELLS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED MODEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THIS SUGGESTS IF
THESE STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE-BASED, THE TORNADO RISK WOULD
INCREASE GIVEN VERY LARGE, FAVORABLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AS SEEN IN
REGION VWP DATA.
CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY WITH TIME AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE RED RIVER VICINITY AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OK AND NORTH/NORTHEAST TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..LEITMAN.. 03/04/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 35279930 37029814 36999661 34659716 31129969 31090077
32640034 34709964 35279930
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SPC MAR 4, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON MAR 03 2025
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING, AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.
...KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/TEXAS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING -- ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
FOUR CORNERS AREA UPPER LOW -- WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKEWISE ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES, ON
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN GRADUAL
WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION, WITH AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR -- WITH STORMS LIKELY
TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INITIALLY. LARGE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORMS.
WITH TIME, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE LINEARLY, AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES INTO A STEADILY DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME, EVOLVING INTO AN
ORGANIZED/SEMI-CONTINUOUS FRONTAL BAND. BY THE LATTER SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED CAPE COMBINED WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, SUGGESTS STRONGER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE
PREDOMINANT MORE LINEAR STORM MODE, SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 03/04/2025
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