LU9DCE > ALERT 09.03.25 11:45z 117 Lines 4164 Bytes #7 (0) @ WW
BID : 6996_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-MAR25
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<K7EK<W0ARP<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250309/1030Z 6996@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN MAR 9 05:58:02 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN MAR 9 05:58:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN MAR 9 05:58:02 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN MAR 9 05:58:02 UTC 2025.
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SPC MAR 9, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT MAR 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
...FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA...
AT MID-LEVELS, A LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX TODAY,
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT TODAY. SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT, THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO THE EVENING.
..BROYLES/HALBERT.. 03/09/2025
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SPC MAR 9, 2025 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT MAR 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER AL MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST, MOVING OFFSHORE
OVER THE GULF STREAM BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW NEAR THE GA
COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE SPORADICALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG, BUT MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FL WILL RESULT IN MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, LIMITING
INSTABILITY (GENERALLY LESS THAN 750 J/KG MLCAPE). THIS WILL LARGELY
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH A BRIEF STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
FURTHER NORTH, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE AROUND
200-400 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A COUPLE INSTANCES
OF SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..LEITMAN.. 03/09/2025
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