ED1ZAC - READ ALERT 8

LU9DCE > ALERT 15.03.25 10:45z 1380 Lines 41550 Bytes #13 (0) @ WW BID : 7365_LU9DCE Read: GUEST Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-MAR25 Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE Sent: 250315/1030Z 7365@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24 __ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____ ( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___) / (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/ PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM) PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN) COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40 WW 40 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 150515Z - 151300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 40 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FAR NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 900 AM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SOUTH BEND IN TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE IN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38...WW 39... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MOSIER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 WW 39 SEVERE TSTM WI 150305Z - 150900Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 39 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MADISON WI TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JANESVILLE WI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...MOSIER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 38 WW 38 TORNADO AR LA MS 150245Z - 151000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 38 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 945 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA WESTERN MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM UNTIL 500 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THE MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS THAT EXISTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING A STRONG (EF2+) TORNADO, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONROE LA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO AR. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MOSIER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 37 WW 37 TORNADO IL IN 150100Z - 150800Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 800 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS ACROSS MISSOURI HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL AND WEST-CENTRAL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH, LARGE HAIL OVER UP TO 2-2.5", AND TORNADOES. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, A FEW STRONG (EF2+) TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON IL TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATTOON IL. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...MOSIER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC PDS TORNADO WATCH 36 WW 36 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 150030Z - 150800Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 730 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL (I.E. GREATER THAN 2" IN DIAMETER) AND STRONG (EF2+) TORNADOES. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE IN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MOSIER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35 WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO LM 142355Z - 150700Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 655 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA NORTHERN ILLINOIS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXIST, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUST WITH ANY DEEPER, MORE SUSTAINED STORMS. SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. DRY LOW-LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TORNADO POTENTIAL VERY LOW, ALTHOUGH STILL NONE ZERO GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARSEILLES IL. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34... AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MOSIER READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 32 WW 32 TORNADO AR IL MO 142100Z - 150400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS WESTERN ILLINOIS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 80-90 MPH. THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR MULTIPLE STRONG TORNADOES AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF QUINCY IL TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE AR. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055. ...GLEASON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40 STATUS REPORTS WW 0040 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 40 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 40 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103- 113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-150640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WABASH WELLS WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-059-149-150640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-150640- READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 STATUS REPORTS WW 0039 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 39 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RFD TO 20 SE MSN TO 40 NNW MSN. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 39 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC021-027-055-059-079-089-101-127-131-133-150640- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DODGE JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 38 STATUS REPORTS WW 0038 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HOT TO 30 SSE HOT. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-069-073-079- 099-103-139-150640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-123-150640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 37 STATUS REPORTS WW 0037 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SLO TO 30 SW MTO TO 25 E BMI TO 25 SSW MMO. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-053-075-079-101-105-147- 159-183-150640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD IROQUOIS JASPER LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON PIATT RICHLAND VERMILION INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-119-121-133-153-157-165-167- 171-150640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 36 STATUS REPORTS WW 0036 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E POF TO 15 WSW MVN. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-151-153-165-181-185- 191-193-199-150640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35 STATUS REPORTS WW 0035 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MMO TO 20 NNE MMO TO 20 SE JVL. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-063-089-091-093-097-111-197-150640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE MCHENRY WILL INC073-089-111-127-150640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-150640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34 STATUS REPORTS WW 0034 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ALO TO 20 NNE RST. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-191-150340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON WINNESHIEK MNC045-055-169-150340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON WINONA WIC023-043-063-081-103-123-150340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC TORNADO WATCH 32 STATUS REPORTS WW 0032 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31 STATUS REPORTS WW 0031 STATUS UPDATES STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE OTM TO 30 NE OXV TO 45 NNE DSM TO 15 E FOD. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-017-023-069-075-079-083-091-099-123-127-157-169-171- 179-197-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BREMER BUTLER FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER MAHASKA MARSHALL POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 190 MD 0190 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 36...38... FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...38... VALID 150549Z - 150715Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36, 38 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-INTENSE (EF2-EF3+) TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WITH A SUPERCELL CLUSTER MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHILE NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN PDS TORNADO WATCH #36 ACROSS NORTHEAST MS. THIS STORM IS LOCATED IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS PER REGIONAL VWP TIME SERIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WITH THIS CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE INTO EAST CENTRAL MS. ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS COULD EMERGE FROM THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND POSE A TORNADO THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THIS REASON, A LOCAL EASTWARD EXTENSION OF TORNADO WATCH #38 WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY 06-07Z. ..THOMPSON.. 03/15/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33958821 32888837 32398870 32168923 32218962 32658955 33408950 33878969 34368943 34708905 34808847 34668815 33958821 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 189 MD 0189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 150457Z - 150600Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...LATEST RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA, BUT VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, AND GIVEN DRY LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL, IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE ADVANCING BAND OF CONVECTION NOW CROSSING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SUCH, NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 03/15/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41538755 42448616 42108525 41168475 40538502 40418674 41538755 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 188 MD 0188 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 36... FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36... VALID 150450Z - 150645Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE/TORNADO RISK IS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO TORNADO WATCH 36. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BROKEN BAND COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. SUSTAINED ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES HAVE PERSISTED WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS, AS THEY MOVE THROUGH AN AXIS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH VERY STRONG FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, THAT VEERS WITH HEIGHT, THESE KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUGGEST CONTINUATION OF THE TORNADO RISK AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A FEW OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ..GOSS.. 03/15/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 34109110 35509090 38368940 38298720 35548806 34118869 34109110 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 187 MD 0187 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 36...38... FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...38... VALID 150439Z - 150615Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36, 38 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK IS EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF SUPERCELLS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME, SEVERAL WITH ONGOING/STRONG CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS BAND -- OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 38. MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST, A SUPERCELL IS CROSSING SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH IS ALSO EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. MEANWHILE, OTHER/WEAKER CONVECTION IS EVOLVING SOUTH OF THIS STORM, WHERE CAMS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (BOTH KINEMATICALLY AND THERMODYNAMICALLY), EXPECT RISK TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 38 FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 03/15/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33949290 34289258 34438971 34068862 33138940 32058982 32109123 33269371 33949290 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MD 186 MD 0186 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...35...39... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...35...39... VALID 150414Z - 150615Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34, 35, 39 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS. STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND -- ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS -- REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS THROUGH/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 03/15/2025 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42489037 43519069 43979050 43208834 42148773 41078749 40928850 41078922 41878970 42489037 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC CENTER PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (PWO) PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS... ILLINOIS MISSOURI IOWA WESTERN KENTUCKY WESTERN INDIANA WESTERN TENNESSEE EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WESTERN ALABAMA NORTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTERN NEBRASKA * HAZARDS... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL, SOME BASEBALL SIZE * SUMMARY... A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. NUMEROUS TORNADOES, SEVERAL OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, WIDESPREAD SEVERE GUSTS RANGING FROM 60 TO 100 MPH, AND SCATTERED LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE ALL APPEAR LIKELY. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES FOR THE POSSIBILITY READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MAR 15, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. NUMEROUS TORNADOES, SEVERAL OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO INTENSE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE GUSTS RANGING FROM 60 TO 100 MPH, AND SCATTERED LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE ALL APPEAR LIKELY. ...01Z UPDATE... INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET IS TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IA. IMPRESSIVE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS, AND SHEAR ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE. WITH 0-3 ESRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2, THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE THE PRIMARY MODULATOR IN CONVECTIVE MODE THIS EVENING/OVER NIGHT. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN INFLUENCE OF THIS EJECTING TROUGH. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER, AND THIS IS BOOSTING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT THAT STRONGLY FAVORS SUPERCELLS. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MATURING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MO INTO NORTHWEST AR. LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND GROW UPSCALE. MULTIPLE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-INTENSE TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN MO, SOUTH INTO MS. FARTHER NORTH, DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY WITH STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTION AS IT SURGES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN WI. OVERALL, CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL STEADILY SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN IL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. ..DARROW.. 03/15/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MAR 15, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE LONG-TRACK AND POTENTIALLY VIOLENT, ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST DANGEROUS TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON, SPREAD ACROSS ALABAMA LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING, AND REACH WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... STRONG CYCLONE THAT IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL EJECT INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO LATER TODAY AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. LATER TONIGHT, THIS JET WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 110KT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE, A SURFACE LOW SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KY BY 16/00Z. ADDITIONALLY, AN INTENSE LLJ WILL EVOLVE BY MID DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO AL/MIDDLE TN/KY BY EARLY EVENING. NET RESULT SHOULD BE FOR A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO ADVANCE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ARCING BAND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO EASTERN AR. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THIS WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE DATA DEPICTS LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA/SOUTHWEST MS, WITH MID 60S APPROACHING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MEMPHIS METRO. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND INTENSE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ESRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES, ESPECIALLY THE CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK DELINEATION. WHILE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN TN VALLEY, CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING ACROSS LA AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THIS REGION. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUPERCELLS SHOULD MATURE AND RACE NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS FLOW REGIME FAVORS LONG-LIVED TORNADOES, AND THE PARAMETER SPACE SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY VIOLENT, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SEVERE COMPLEX SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA. ..DARROW/MOORE.. 03/15/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= SPC MAR 15, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES, SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS, AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT 12Z ON SUNDAY, A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS JET. THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THIS BROKEN LINE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA, THE CAROLINAS, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SHORT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE COULD ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IMPRESSIVE, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK WITH POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY ISOLATED. ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AS A JET STREAK TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DURING THE MORNING, CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, WILL MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. FURTHER WEST, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EASTWARD TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ALLOWING FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONSIST OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. ..BROYLES.. 03/15/2025 READ MORE =#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#= +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ARGEN-X BBS FIDONET - TELNET ARGENX.KOZOW.COM PORT 23000 HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
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