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LU9DCE > NEWS 07.03.26 18:04l 841 Lines 28038 Bytes #51 (0) @ WW
BID : 8699_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260307/1630Z 8699@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 21
WW 21 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 070425Z - 071200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE IS SLOWLY MATURING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE COMMON WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT
SURGES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. A TORNADO OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF SCOTT AFB IL TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19...WW 20...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24035.
...DARROW
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 20
WW 20 TORNADO AR OK 070355Z - 071000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA, IN A FAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS MIGHT POSE A
RISK OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
HAIL.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF FAYETTEVILLE AR TO 65
MILES SOUTH OF MCALESTER OK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 18...WW
19...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 18
WW 18 TORNADO KS MO 062345Z - 070700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 18
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 545
PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WATCH THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN MO
TO 90 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...WW 17...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 21 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0021 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE COU
TO 40 NE VIH TO 20 WSW SLO.
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC133-157-163-070840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
MOC007-019-027-055-071-073-099-151-186-187-221-070840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE
JEFFERSON OSAGE STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 20 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0020 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PRX TO
30 ENE TUL TO 20 SSE JLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-070940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-079-097-101-127-135-070940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MAYES MUSKOGEE
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 19 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0019 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SZL
TO 35 SE IRK.
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC089-175-070840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD RANDOLPH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 18 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0018 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE TUL
TO 20 WSW JLN TO 60 NNE JLN TO 45 NW COU.
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-065-067-077-085-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-159-161-167-169-185-209-213-215-217-225-
229-070840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
COOPER DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS GREENE
HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
PETTIS PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CLAIR STONE
TANEY TEXAS VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 162
MD 0162 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 18...21...
FOR SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 18...21...
VALID 070844Z - 071045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES 18, 21 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S F) AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
(WITH 60+ KT AT 1-2 KM AGL NOTED IN REGIONAL VWPS), ONGOING
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY DISORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL/MO. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES/BUOYANCY AND AN UNDERCUTTING OUTFLOW THAT IS GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER, BUOYANCY MAY MODESTLY
IMPROVE WITH TIME DUE TO CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITHIN THE SEASONABLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ANY INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT
MAY BE REALIZED IF ANY PART OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE CAN TAKE
ON A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, OR IF ANY OF THE ONGOING DISCRETE
CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE CAN INTENSIFY BEFORE MERGING INTO
THE QLCS.
GIVEN THE WEAK BUOYANCY AND CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE
ONGOING QLCS, DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPTICK
IN STORM ORGANIZATION, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 03/07/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 36599295 37859079 38319017 38838972 39908894 39838774
39108762 38738764 38338785 37988807 37498874 36748996
36589060 36609177 36599295
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 161
MD 0161 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 20... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN AR
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...
VALID 070740Z - 070945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR. WHILE SOME WEAKENING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE KSRX VWP, WIND PROFILES REMAIN
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS, WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR/ABOVE 250 M2/S2. SPC OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS
AND SHORT-TERM RAP FORECASTS SUGGEST MAINTENANCE OR A MODEST
INCREASE IN MLCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, AS SOMEWHAT RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
ONGOING CONVECTION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.
FARTHER SOUTH, STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHEAST TX, WITHIN THE ZONE OF SOMEWHAT
RICHER/DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT AND
RELATIVELY SUBTLE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO MATURE, BUT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, SO NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO MUCH OF AR IS POSSIBLE IF TRENDS
SUPPORT MATURATION OF THESE PREFRONTAL STORMS.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 03/07/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32569565 33889554 35519517 36469417 36459311 36429150
36079126 35669142 34769212 33879283 32929365 32339457
32119531 32309553 32569565
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 7, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST
VIRGINIA...AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS OVER PARTS OF OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK, AND FROM MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW, EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST OH INTO
SOUTHEAST TX BY 00Z. TO THE EAST, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS VA AND INTO WESTERN NY AND PA DURING THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A PLUME OF 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXTEND FROM
TX INTO IN AND OH, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND 70 F DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF COAST. EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD AS FAR
NORTH AS VA, MD AND DE. SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH THE
GREATEST RELATIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE.
...OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY/PA/WV...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND SHEAR. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NY/PA. HERE, LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ACCENTUATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO RISK JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE, 40-50 KT MEAN WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, IN
COMBINATION WITH LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL FAVOR
WIND DAMAGE.
...TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN MID TO
UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS AHEAD
OF IT. SUFFICIENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL SHEAR MAY AID HAIL PRODUCTION
WITH CELLS EVEN AS THEY ARE UNDERCUT. OTHERWISE, ANY CONVECTION
FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, AIDED
BY MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER FEW KM.
..JEWELL/MOORE.. 03/07/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 7, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
...CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VA...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EMERGING OVER VA/NC BY EARLY MONDAY. A BELT OF ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
A WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA INTO NC/SC. MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. A SURFACE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
THROUGH AFTERNOON, BUT WITH TIME WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE 60S WILL
FOSTER WEAK DESTABILIZATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY, LEADING TO AROUND 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES (SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/FAR NORTHEAST
NC). A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED CELLS COULD DEVELOP AND POSE A RISK FOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..LEITMAN.. 03/07/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 7, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI.
...ARKLATEX TO MISSISSIPPI...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, A SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SUBTLE. HOWEVER, FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION. FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR ALSO SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN MODEST FORCING MECHANISMS, STORM
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE AT
LEAST CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
INTO MS.
..LEITMAN.. 03/07/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 7, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4-5/TUE-WED...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS
AND OH VALLEYS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME. STARTING ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS
TO MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BELT
OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ALONG WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER IA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A SHARPENING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MO/MID-MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTH AND EAST EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND HOW MUCH DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. NEVERTHELESS, A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE, THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ADJUSTED IN COMING DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED, BUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAYS OVER A BROAD AREA.
...DAY 6/THU...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY AS SPREAD AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION/TIMING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST/DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A 15 PERCENT DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THURSDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LOW AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOME LOWER AMPLITUDE AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE LARGELY REMAINING OFFSHORE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY
AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A
COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES, RECENT RAINFALL, AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES TODAY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
THOUGH LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A CLIPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING WEST/NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND MAY
COINCIDE WITH RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 15-25% RANGE WITHIN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN WY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WY INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NE AND SD WHERE ERC VALUES ARE NEAR SEASONAL
HIGHS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS
PER MRMS ESTIMATES.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...
EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AS NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN CA. A COMBINATION OF STRONG MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT (LAX-DAG GRADIENT FORECAST TO BE AROUND -5 MB) WILL SUPPORT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (GUSTING TO 35-45 MPH AT TIMES)
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THESE WINDS
IS FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, LATEST FUELS ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT FUELS REMAIN
UNSUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD.
..MOORE.. 03/07/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MIGRATE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH A CORRESPONDING UPTICK IN DRY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE REGIONALLY
MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK
PANHANDLE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO CONFIDENCE
IS REASONABLY HIGH IN OBSERVING RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S. ACTIVE FIRES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS INDICATE
THAT FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE AMID ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AS WITH D1/SATURDAY, A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SUPPORT SOME INCREASE WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MT, CONFIDENCE
IN SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS EASTERN WY AND
SD. REGARDLESS, LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS RH VALUES FALL TO NEAR 20% ACROSS A REGION WITH
RECEPTIVE FUELS.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...
AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN 14-18
UTC BEFORE GRADUALLY ABATING LATER IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL TERRAIN. DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS, RECENT FUEL ANALYSES SHOW THAT
FUELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD.
..MOORE.. 03/07/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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