| |
LU9DCE > NEWS 24.04.26 14:04l 481 Lines 18925 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 12195_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-APR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260424/1130Z 12195@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140
WW 140 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 240250Z - 240900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT,
POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TULSA OK TO 55 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN MO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 137...WW 138...WW 139...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27030.
...HART
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0140 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CQB TO
25 S GMJ TO 30 S UMN TO 20 NW SGF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
..THOMPSON..04/24/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-240840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
MOC009-043-077-209-213-240840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE
STONE TANEY
OKC001-021-037-101-107-111-143-145-240840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 24 08:31:03 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 24 08:31:03 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC APR 24, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARK-LA-TEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, AS CYCLONIC WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE MORE ORGANIZED PARTS OF THIS LINE. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE.
FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM EAST TEXAS INTO
FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MLCAPE NEAR
3500 J/KG, 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE, AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR 225 M2/S2, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH
SUPERCELLS. IF THE STORMS CAN TRANSITION INTO A SHORT INTENSE LINE
SEGMENT, THEN A LOCALIZED SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING
THE DAY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD
OF THE STORMS HAVE VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM, WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES/MOORE.. 04/24/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 24, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, POSING A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED, BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SUPPRESSED, BLOCKING RIDGE, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A
DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW NOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY ONLY
MOVE SUBTLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO
ELONGATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ONE NOTABLE EMERGING
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION ACCELERATING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL LOW, A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL EMERGING
PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
DIGGING TROUGHING ALONG AND INLAND OF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST.
IN RESPONSE TO THE LATTER DEVELOPMENT, A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC, INLAND OF THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RISE WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE SLOWED A BIT BY SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THROUGH
PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
IN LOWER LEVELS, SEASONABLY MOIST AIR, SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED BENEATH THE LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS VARY WITH THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS OCCURS ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY, BUT
A DRYLINE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO SHARPEN ROUGHLY FROM THE WICHITA
FALLS TX THROUGH DEL RIO TX VICINITY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
MODEL DISPARITY CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST. STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND CAPPING WILL REMAIN PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, AS
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD PARTS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE DAY.
AT SOME POINT, IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED
BY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE, ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ELEVATED
DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, PERHAPS
OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR.
EVEN IF THE NEAR-SURFACE INFLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO EMANATE
FROM A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER, RATHER MODEST TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS PROBABLY WILL LIMIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD GRADUALLY
ORGANIZE AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS.
..KERR.. 04/24/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 24, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
BEFORE ONE OR TWO ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF STORMS SPREAD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT ELONGATED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/SHEAR AXIS MAY
TEND TO SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WHILE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ALONG AN AXIS
INLAND OF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY
WEAKENS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTH, WHILE A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION ACCELERATES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, WITHIN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL GENERALLY
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
VICINITY OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING,
BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY
12Z MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW, DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
MAY REACH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR,
INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, MAY TEND TO
ADVECT IN A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM, MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONTAL ZONE MAY BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
VICINITY, BEFORE TENDING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD.
...GREAT PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH THOUGH THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL YET EVIDENT WITHIN
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST
TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE PRESENCE OF DESTABILIZATION
AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR. BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, THIS PROBABLY
WILL INCLUDE ENLARGING, CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES,
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL, WITH INCREASING STORM COVERAGE PROBABLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN KANSAS VICINITY.
GRADUALLY, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, FOCUSING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT, MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS
SPREADING INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE HAZARD ALONG
WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 04/24/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
DAMPEN, GIVING WAY TO A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN A VERY BREEZY AND
PERSISTENTLY ARID ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE WORK
WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AND THE NEIGHBORING HIGH PLAINS, WHERE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF POTENT WINDS
COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE, WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING IS FORECAST TO
DESCEND 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WHEN COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO 10-15% (AND LOCALLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS), THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS
ALREADY STRESSED BY A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY.
WHILE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY MAY OFFER SOME MINOR
MITIGATION OF THE THREAT BEFORE DUSK, THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
HEIGHTENED. CONSEQUENTLY, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCLUDE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH WESTERN
COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS, WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 20% WILL COINCIDE WITH ERCS REACHING THE 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE.
...CAROLINAS...
AS THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS (REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH SUSTAINED) CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT MEET
CRITERIA FOR ELEVATED CONDITIONS, CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN RHS FALLING BELOW 20% AMID ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER ALREADY DRY FUELS, KEEPING THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED.
..STEARNS/MOORE.. 04/24/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD, LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO THE
EAST, THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE ON DAY
2/SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST AND APPALACHIANS. THIS
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS OVER THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS BYPASSED BY APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL (ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS), THE FIRE
RISK POSED BY LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY, SUSTAINING VERY BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER, THE FUEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY STRESSED, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
EXTENTS OF THE DRAWN AREA. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10-20% OVER RECEPTIVE
FUELS, FURTHER AGGRAVATING THE FIRE RISK. CONSEQUENTLY, AN ELEVATED
AREA EXISTS FOR DAY 2/SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS WHERE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE. WHILE
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FARTHER EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TEXAS, FUEL CONDITIONS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF
MIDLAND APPEAR TO BE LESS RECEPTIVE OVERALL. HOWEVER, THIS EVENT
WILL WORK TO DRY FUELS OVER THIS REGION AND MAY PROMOTE FUTURE RISK
ACROSS THIS AREA.
..STEARNS/MOORE.. 04/24/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
PYTHON PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 1.1
NEW DOMAIN LU9DCE.KOZOW.COM
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
