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LU9DCE > NEWS 26.04.26 14:04l 647 Lines 23743 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 12328_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-APR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260426/1131Z 12328@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 148
WW 148 TORNADO TX 260340Z - 261000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, VERY LARGE HAIL HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE
STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCH HAIL WITH CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST OF SHERMAN TX TO 50 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TX. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 147...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...LEITMAN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147
WW 147 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 260310Z - 261100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO 2 INCH DIAMETER WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. IF A STORM CAN BECOME SURFACE-BASED, A
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DE QUEEN AR TO 35 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO AR. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 146...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29035.
...LEITMAN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 148 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0148 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRS TO
30 NNW CRS TO 30 NE DAL TO 30 SSW ADM.
..THOMPSON..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC085-097-119-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-379-397-467-260840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DELTA
FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR RAINS ROCKWALL
VAN ZANDT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0147 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SHV
TO 25 SW ELD TO 35 N MLU.
..THOMPSON..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-027-049-061-073-111-260940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CLAIBORNE JACKSON
LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0145 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO
35 NNW RUE.
..THORNTON..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-131-260540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
OKC079-135-260540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN APR 26 08:52:04 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN APR 26 08:52:04 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC APR 26, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG TORNADOES AND HAILSTONES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING PROVIDING LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT THE
SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS.
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED OVER
THE MOIST SECTOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES, AND AS A 40 TO 50
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THAT A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT SALINA, KANSAS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION
DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BY LATE EVENING
IN CENTRAL KANSAS, MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 4500 TO 5000 J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY STEEP AND COULD EXCEED 8 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING, SOME
CELLS COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONCE THIS OCCURS, A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP.
THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA, LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL MAKE INITIATION DIFFICULT ALONG THE DRYLINE. IF A STORM CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TO MID
EVENING, EXTREME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG) AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL. 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 250 M2/S2
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.
...ARK-LA-TEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WEAK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT LOCALLY HEAT UP
THE MOST. CELLS THAT CAN STRENGTHEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST TO THE EAST OF A
DRYLINE, AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG) WITH MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES/MOORE.. 04/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 26, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PROMINENT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH, CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICAN GULF COAST, MAY BUILD A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF A DIGGING MID/UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID- TO SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE
BROAD, LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING TO ITS NORTH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF NORTH AMERICA.
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATTER REGIME, IT APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION,
ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE (SUB-1000 MB) DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE. A
TRAILING LOW MAY MIGRATE FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY, TRAILED BY A DRYLINE JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY BE PRECEDED BY ONE OR TWO
CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAINTAINED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION, WHICH MAY STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
THE IMPACTS OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR, AND A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE
OF LINGERING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND
INSOLATION BENEATH AN INITIALLY NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING PLUME OF
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR, AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SUBSTANTIVE
DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE TO THE COOL SIDE OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION, WHICH MAY
RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON, AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW.
...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 70+
KT SOUTHWESTERLY, CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK, IT APPEARS THAT THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW/DRYLINE MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHEASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BENEATH 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW, THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY, WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG TORNADOES. GRADUALLY, IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL GROW
UPSCALE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE DRYLINE AS
IT BEGINS TO BE OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT, INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS,
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR STRONG
TORNADOES, WITH EVOLVING MESO-VORTICES ALONG DEVELOPING GUST FRONTS
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ALSO POSING A RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE EXTENT OF THE TORNADIC THREAT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR, AND WILL
PROBABLY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE MAINTAINED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODIFYING
INITIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EVOLVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS, THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR HEIGHTENED
TORNADO POTENTIAL, WITH A FEW STRONG, AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING,
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CATEGORICAL AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD
STILL BE UPGRADED FURTHER IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS PERIOD.
..KERR.. 04/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 26, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN EVOLVING BROAD CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN WHILE MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY VICINITY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
ADVANCE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS MAY BE SLOWED A BIT AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATION SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE, AS IT MIGRATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF BROAD, LARGER-SCALE INTERIOR NORTH AMERICAN
TROUGHING, TO THE NORTH OF A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH MAINTAINING
A NOTABLE INFLUENCE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH GULF COAST STATES.
THERE REMAINS NOTABLE SPREAD WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
CONCERNING THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS WITH THE EVOLVING WAVE. A CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO INITIALLY PRECEDE THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH ARK-LA-TEX AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. EVEN SO, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO MID
SOUTH, AND PERHAPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. AIDED BY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES, THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZING CLUSTERS WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
RISK FOR TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 04/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 26, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL, THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE
PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN A MANNER THAT
RESULTS IN A BROADLY CONFLUENT REGIME DEVELOPING ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH, IT APPEARS THAT A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN
WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST, WHILE AN
INITIALLY PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO,
BECOMES SUPPRESSED, AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM LOWS IS FORCED INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY BROAD COOL SURFACE
RIDGING OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST REGION BY THURSDAY. WHILE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION MIGHT SUPPORT INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
LATE THIS WORK WEEK, MOSTLY ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF A STALLING
FRONTAL ZONE, INTO FLORIDA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE NEXT WEEKEND, THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS RELATIVELY
MINOR AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EARLY-MORNING
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL PROMOTE STEADY
DEEPENING OF A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS THROUGH THE
DAY, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONSENSUS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT IS THAT WIDESPREAD 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE. A SWATH
OF 30-35 MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO FAR
WESTERN TX UNDER THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE SACRAMENTO AND SOUTHERN SANDIA MANZANO MOUNTAINS, AND WILL
SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DRY AIR MASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS LARGELY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING WILL PROMOTE FURTHER RH REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS, RH VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL INTO THE 5-10% RANGE
AGAIN TODAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE, MRMS QPE SUGGESTS
LITTLE RAINFALL IS REACHING THE SURFACE. GIVEN PRECEDING DAYS OF
DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING ERC VALUES (LARGELY NEAR THE
85TH PERCENTILE), RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL SUPPORT
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..MOORE.. 04/26/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MIGRATE INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, 15-20 MPH WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF OK
AND TX.
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF 5-15% RH
MINIMUMS OVER A REGION WITH DRY FUELS. CONSEQUENTLY, WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC LOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE REGION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, RESIDUAL STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT AREAS OF 20-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
MPH. BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED 20
MPH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY ROUGHLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE SIGNAL
AND SOME RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS WERE INTRODUCED.
..MOORE.. 04/26/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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