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LU9DCE > NEWS 13.03.26 10:34l 302 Lines 10854 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 9099_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260313/0915Z 9099@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI MAR 13 07:28:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI MAR 13 07:28:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC MD 236
MD 0236 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF UPPER MI...NORTHERN LOWER
MI...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN WI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPPER MI...NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 130706Z - 131100Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR (LOCALLY
HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN THE BASE OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS MN, WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND VWP DATA INDICATE A
ROBUST JET STREAK (AROUND 100 KT AT 6 KM PER VWP DATA) IMPINGING ON
WI. IN RESPONSE, A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED FRONTOGENETIC ZONE
IS EVOLVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI, UPPER MI, AND NORTHERN
LOWER MI. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING MAXIMIZED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF THIS ZONE, WHERE COLD/DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES AND THE
FOCUSED ASCENT ARE FAVORING A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE
STRONG/FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN A DEEP/SATURATED DGZ WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR, THOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES TO AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE CORE
OF THE BAND TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
..WEINMAN.. 03/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 44318652 45258770 46658930 47168927 47518865 47538779
47038636 46598548 45838455 45048402 44518375 43928393
43598463 43778565 44318652
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 13, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...SOUTH FLORIDA...
NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS LOW
LATITUDES, INCLUDING THE EASTERN GULF BASIN/SOUTH FL. LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC DATA DEPICTS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA, AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF THE SOUTH FL PENINSULA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MODEST DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
BUOYANCY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
WEAK-FLOW REGIME. FORECAST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY APPEAR TOO WEAK
TO WARRANT A MEANINGFUL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 03/13/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 13, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
ON SATURDAY, A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY, AND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. TO THE EAST, AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND, WITH RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
AMERICA. THE EXCEPTION DURING THE DAY WILL BE OVER THE FL PENINSULA,
WHERE WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS.
...FL...
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY
MIDLEVELS, WITH LIGHTLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THE END RESULT
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
...ELSEWHERE...
THOUGH LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. SPORADIC LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER WESTERN WY AND VICINITY AS THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
MIDLEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. A SURFACE LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IA. OVERALL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME APPEARS
MEAGER, BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN IA
INTO MN AND WI WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
..JEWELL.. 03/13/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 13, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES EXISTS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GREATEST THREAT
APPEARS TO BE FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY, A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY, WITH A STRONG MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING INTO MO BY
00Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE TROUGH WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN, WITH AN INTENSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
ACROSS AR, MO, IL AND IN.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MO
AND INTO IL, WITH A PROMINENT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MO WESTERN AR, AND NORTHEAST TX. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH MID 50S F INTO
SOUTHERN MO BY 00Z AND AS FAR NORTH AS IN AND OH BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.
INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1000 J/KG FROM AR INTO TX. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBSTANTIAL
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MODELS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND CAPPING,
THOUGH STRONG ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FACTORS.
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES, DEVELOPING
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST AR, SOUTHEAST MO, MUCH OF
SOUTHERN IL, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IN, WESTERN KY AND TN. THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME, AND WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVELS OF INSTABILITY, IT WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS, PRODUCING
CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB ALONG THE FRONT MAY EXCEED 70 KT, WITH A
VERY STRONG FRONTAL SURGE OUT OF THE WEST.
THE ENVELOPE OF GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT IN LATER OUTLOOKS
AS THE EVENT NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
..JEWELL.. 03/13/2026
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND
10-15% WITH SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO NEW MEXICO
AND EAST IN NE, KS, OK PANHANDLE. A FEW MORE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO WILL SEE LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FOR NOW, THIS AREA REMAINS TOO LOCALIZED FOR
INCLUSION OF CRITICAL AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 03/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON D2/SATURDAY. AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ON
D2/SATURDAY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT, WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. VERY STRONG/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS. IN
THIS REGION, SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO 10-15 PERCENT. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT MAINTAINING CRITICAL FIRE AREAS FOR
SATURDAY. BROADER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE IMMEDIATE AREA IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THIS AREA MAY
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN FURTHER OUTLOOKS IF TRENDS INCREASE OR
CONFIDENCE IN MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ON
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. FOR NOW, FUELS IN THIS
REGION ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE BUT THIS EVENT WILL WORK TO PRECONDITION
FUELS AMID TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
..THORNTON.. 03/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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