KF5JRV > TECH 29.10.25 10:15l 147 Lines 6675 Bytes #194 (0) @ WW BID : 14941_KF5JRV Read: GUEST Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Oct 29 Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<DB0APK<DK0WUE<ZL2BAU<VE3CGR<KF5JRV Sent: 251029/1105Z 14941@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24 Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will surge southward along the eastern slope of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains today, with the resultant tight gradient expected to lead to strong to gale-force north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region today through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach 35 to 40 kt tonight into early Thu, then level off to the range of 30 to 35 kt later during Thu and into Thu night, diminishing to fresh to strong speeds early on Fri, continuing into Fri night. Rough seas are expected with these winds, peaking around 13 to 14 ft. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N100W by late Thu night, at which time they will be merging with a set of long-period southwest swell. Seas in the Gulf will subside to less than 8 ft during Fri afternoon. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun, possibly reaching gale-force early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 13N87W to 15N95W, from 11N105W to 11N119W and from 14N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N and east of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of America as strong high pressure builds behind it. This is leading to fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with moderate seas. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered well west of the area. Moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas are noted in the northern and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N-NW winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found off Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient related to building high pressure along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, in the wake of a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of America today, will support strong to gale-force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region today through Fri. Expect N-NE winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, with seas building seas up to around 13 to 14 ft with this gap wind event. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N100W on Thu night. The long-period northwest swell west of Baja California will continue to subside today. A new set of long-period NW swell will enter the waters west of northern Baja California Thu night bringing seas of 6 to 9 ft to those waters. This swell will be reinforced by another set later this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The westerly winds south of the monsoon trough have begun to decrease as the broad envelope of Hurricane Melissa begins to move away from the central Caribbean. Currently, moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds and moderate seas are evident south of the monsoon trough, with lighter wind speeds north of this feature. Scattered showers are affecting the offshore waters of Central America. Stronger winds and higher seas are likely in these waters. For the forecast, the onshore westerly wind flow that is feeding into the broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea will gradually diminish today. Winds will diminish and seas will subside thereafter. Meanwhile, rough seas will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu due to a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas building to 8 ft are forecast for the Papagayo area Thu night into Sat as high pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Looking ahead, long-period cross equatorial southwest swell will propagate across the region toward the end of the week, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands starting early on Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The small tropical storm that was located well SW of Baja California has succumbed to the hostile conditions and weakened to a post-tropical cyclone. The remnant low is producing fresh to strong winds and rough seas within 60 nm of the center. The rest of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 35N132W, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds over much of the waters north of 10N and west of 120W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 6-8 ft in the area described. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are noted south of 10N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the northern waters into the weekend. The remnant of Sonia will continue westward over the next few days as winds and seas gradually decay. The NW swell in the NE waters producing rough seas will be reinforced late this week into the weekend. Meanwhile, long-period cross equatorial southwest swell will bring rough seas to the forecast region starting today. This swell event will roughly cover the waters south of about 12N between a line from near 12N106W to 04N95W to 03.4S90W and 125W. This well will merge with the rough seas entering the eastern waters Thu into Fri in association with the strong gap wind event in Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another NW swell will enter the far NW waters late Fri into Sat with seas reaching 10 ft Sat night. $$ Delgado 73 de Scott KF5JRV Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
Read previous mail | Read next mail