LU9DCE > ALERT    28.05.21 17:00z 323 Lines 12996 Bytes #183 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-MAY.2021
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210528/1631Z 1485@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21


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                 ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
                     BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
                        Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 
 Storm Prediction Center
 en-us
 None
 Fri, 28 May 2021 03:30:02 +0000
 Fri, 28 May 2021 03:30:02 +0000
 general
 1
 
 
  
 
WW 217 SEVERE TSTM AR 272210Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
Northern and central Arkansas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning from 510
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Am organizing complex of strong-severe thunderstorms over
northeastern Oklahoma will encounter a richly moist/unstable air
mass over Arkansas.Damaging/severe wind will be the main hazard. 
Isolated large hail also is possible.A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, mainly where the complex interacts with outflow from
nonsevere to marginally severe storms now to its east, in northern
Arkansas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of
Fort Smith AR to 40 miles east southeast of Batesville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 214...WW 215...WW 216...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Edwards
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 03:30:03 +0000
 
 
WW 216 SEVERE TSTM TX 272040Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
West and West Central Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
 inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form along the dryline, and along a
cold front sagging into west Texas this afternoon.Supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of
Dryden TX to 15 miles west northwest of Altus OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 214...WW 215...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 03:28:08 +0000
 
 
WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DEQ TO
25 WNW RUE TO 20 NNE RUE TO 60 W MEM.
..KERR..05/28/21
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
ARC001-019-029-039-045-051-053-059-069-083-085-095-097-105-109-
113-115-117-119-125-127-149-280440-
AR 
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLARKCONWAY
DALLASFAULKNERGARLAND 
GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON
LOGAN LONOKEMONROE
MONTGOMERYPERRYPIKE 
POLKPOPE PRAIRIE 
PULASKISALINESCOTT
YELL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 03:30:03 +0000
 
 
WW 0216 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW SPS
TO 45 S CDS TO 30 SE CDS TO 30 NW SPS.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 216 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 28/04Z.
..KERR..05/28/21
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
TXC009-023-155-197-275-485-487-280400-
TX 
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHERBAYLORFOARD
HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA 
WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 03:28:08 +0000
 
 
WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W CSM TO
25 NE CSM TO 20 E CQB TO 20 NNE FYV.
..KERR..05/27/21
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 215 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
OKC001-005-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-039-049-
051-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-081-085-087-091-095-
099-101-107-109-111-121-123-125-127-133-135-137-141-145-149-
280040-
OK 
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKABECKHAM 
BRYAN CADDOCANADIAN
CARTERCHEROKEECHOCTAW 
CLEVELANDCOAL COMANCHE
COTTONCUSTERGARVIN
GRADY GREERHARMON
HASKELLHUGHESJACKSON 
JEFFERSONJOHNSTONKIOWA
LATIMERLE FLORELINCOLN 
LOVEMCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MURRAYMUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMAOKMULGEE
PITTSBURGPONTOTOCPOTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHASEMINOLESEQUOYAH
STEPHENS TILLMAN WAGONER 
WASHITA
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 00:00:15 +0000
 
 
WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 214
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 214 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280000Z.
..SQUITIERI..05/27/21
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 214 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
ILC047-185-193-280000-
IL 
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDSWABASHWHITE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 00:00:16 +0000
 
MD 0780 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Areas affected...Parts of northwestern into north central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...
Valid 280324Z - 280500Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
continues.
SUMMARY...Some risk for hail and gusty winds may continue in
stronger storms spreading south of the Red River through at least
Midnight-2 AM CDT. However, severe weather potential, in general,
appears low enough that a new severe weather watch will not be
needed.
DISCUSSION...Steep lapse rates, associated with remnants of the more
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer and warmer elevated
mixed-layer air, are still supporting large CAPE in the vicinity of
weak low pressure at the intersection of a southward advancing cold
front and conglomerate convective outflow boundary.Given this
environment, it is possible that at least weak large-scale ascent,
aided by low-level convergence and warm advection focused to the
northeast of the low, could continue to support vigorous
thunderstorm development another several hours.In the presence of
strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer, generally above the
leading edge of the southward advancing cooler air, some of this
activity might continue to pose some risk for severe hail and strong
surface gusts.However, with the instability gradually waning, and
southerly low-level pre-frontal/cold pool flow remaining generally
weak, there is little to suggest a substantive increase in storm
intensities and severe weather potential beyond what is ongoing now,
as progresses south of the Red River.
..Kerr.. 05/28/2021
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON33879884 33909748 32669760 32519877 33330024 34119970
33879884 
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 03:25:04 +0000
MD 0779 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Areas affected...parts of central into northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...
Valid 280227Z - 280400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#217. Damaging winds remains the primary threat with the stronger
storms, though some severe hail and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant MCS is entering Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #217. MRMS mosaic radar data shows 30 dBZ cores peaking around
35 kft with some of the strongest updrafts across far eastern OK
into western AR, with some severe hail possible with a strong storm
core in LeFlore County, OK. Given 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the
MCS, storms are expected to maintain modest intensity for a couple
more hours, with damaging gusts and occasional marginally severe
hail being the main threats. While low-level shear remains
relatively modest across the watch area, a brief tornado cannot be
completely ruled out with any transient QLCS circulations that are
not undercut by outflow. Otherwise, storms are expected to gradually
weaken by around 06Z given the onset of boundary-layer
stabilization, and the tendency for storms to be well undercut by
outflow.
..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/28/2021
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON34559459 35129453 35649442 35819405 35879297 35869220
35869171 35549118 35049108 34539116 34179159 34079248
34099371 34559459 
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 02:28:03 +0000
 
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue from parts of the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Significant
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Elongated MCS, oriented WSW-ENE across central OK into northern AR,
is gradually sagging south as outflow surges ahead of the primary
convection by 10-20 miles. Convective mode is primarily
multi-cellular with merged clusters responsible for very heavy rain
and strong winds. However, one strong supercell has recently matured
along the leading convection over McIntosh County OK. This storm is
digging east-southeast at 25-30kt and damaging wind threat could
increase if a bow-type structure ultimately evolves with this
activity.
Otherwise, more isolated severe threat extends across the TX South
Plains to near the Mexican border. Large hail is noted with most of
these slow-moving storms and this activity should linger through
late evening as favorable southerly inflow continues across this
portion of TX. 00z sounding from MAF exhibited steep lapse rates
with strong surface-6km shear and modest buoyancy. This supports
longer-lived slow-moving supercells across this portion of TX.
Downstream, FWD sounding is quite capped, but conditionally unstable
with steep lapse rates. MCS over OK should continue surging toward
northeast TX where weaker capping is observed, per SHV/LZK
soundings.
..Darrow.. 05/28/2021
Read more
Fri, 28 May 2021 00:44:48 +0000
 
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