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LU9DCE > NEWS 20.03.26 10:34l 341 Lines 13489 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 9618_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 260320/0915Z 9618@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI MAR 20 08:45:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI MAR 20 08:45:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI MAR 20 08:45:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI MAR 20 08:45:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAR 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
...UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD, BUT THIS FEATURE WILL INFLUENCE MOST
OF THE WESTERN US BY FORCING STRONGER WESTERLIES TO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER/GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY 21/00Z.
AS THIS OCCURS WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
EASTERN OH/PA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS WESTERN
NY-NORTHERN OH-CENTRAL IN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EARLY THIS MORNING, BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE DRY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OH VALLEY WITH ONLY UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS
OBSERVED. DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHERN AR WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY,
POSSIBLY ARRIVING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN SO, DEW POINTS
WITHIN THIS SOURCE REGION ARE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MID AFTERNOON SUGGEST MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING SUCH THAT 0-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM
WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-700 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
AND THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.
..DARROW/CHALMERS.. 03/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY, AS
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITHIN THE FLOW, A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN, AS A MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 03/20/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 20, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
...OHIO VALLEY/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE, WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SEVERE THREAT.
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR
CINCINNATI, OHIO HAVE MLCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION, 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 7 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST
HAIL THREAT MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE EVENT, WHEN CELLS ARE
MORE LIKELY BE DISCRETE. A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED, AND
COULD INCREASE AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 03/20/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 20, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...MONDAY/DAY 4 TO WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON
MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK, BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NATION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., MAKING
THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS.
...THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND FRIDAY/DAY 8...
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY, A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE
THREAT MAY DEVELOP ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, LOW PREDICTABILITY
EXISTS CONCERNING ANY SPECIFIC SCENARIO.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COUPLED WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME, WITH
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AMID AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, A CONTINUING
DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO YIELD SUSTAINED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN
NOTED VIA RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH FURTHER RH REDUCTIONS TO
10-20% FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS, THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE WESTERN WYOMING BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP MINIMUM RH VALUES
OF 10-20%.
FUELS REMAIN MORE MARGINAL FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA; HOWEVER, CONTINUED WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE SUPPORTED SOME DRYING OF FINE FUELS ALONG WITH
RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY. GIVEN THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
15-25% AMID STRONGER SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. 40+
KNOTS OF 700 MB FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION COUPLED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING MAY ALSO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
...CENTRAL NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN OREGON...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH RH VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-15%, LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OREGON INTO CENTRAL NEVADA, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT FAVOR
TERRAIN-INDUCED WIND ENHANCEMENTS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL EARLY SEASON
FUEL CONDITIONS AND SPORADIC COVERAGE OF COINCIDENT ELEVATED WIND/RH
CRITERIA.
..CHALMERS.. 03/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND WESTERN WYOMING BASIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD STRENGTHENING OF
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH REDUCED RH
VALUES IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FROM THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BREAK
DOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
D2/SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTS THE RIDGE AND MOVES THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE GREAT PLAINS. THE
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS (20-30 MPH) COUPLED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
OF 10-15% ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN UTAH, AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
COUPLED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WITH CONTINUING
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
AIDING IN THE DRYING OF FINE FUELS AND FORECAST RH VALUES OF 10-20%
(LOCALLY DOWN TO 5%) DURING PEAK HEATING, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT
BASIN EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND FROM PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS NORTHWARD TO WYOMING. WHILE MUCH OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ARE WITHIN THE ELEVATED AREA, FUEL CONDITIONS AND
SNOW COVER WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THOSE AREAS.
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY, HOWEVER, WHICH MAY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARILY
PERSIST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..CHALMERS.. 03/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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