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LU9DCE > NEWS 24.03.26 10:34l 290 Lines 10517 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 9954_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 260324/0915Z 9954@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 24 08:45:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 24 08:45:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 24 08:45:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 24 08:45:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAR 24, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS TODAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO FLORIDA AND STALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.
...FLORIDA...
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES, SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
0-6KM SHEAR (<20 KNOTS).
..BENTLEY/WENDT.. 03/24/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 24, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, A FEW REGIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE (AIDED BY LOCALIZED LIFT
ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES) WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DUE TO WEAK WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PROFILE. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING INTO THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT ROBUST/DEEP CONVECTION. SIMILARLY, VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE
MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE
CO ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO VERY
WEAK/NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FROM RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 10%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..MOORE.. 03/24/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 24, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS TOWARDS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS, ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING AND A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE RETURNING
MOISTURE.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
FAVOR CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A PREDOMINANT SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, SOME
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A COMBINATION OF 40-50 KNOT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
MIDWEST, LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING, AND LIMITED BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MAY PROMOTE SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITED AT THIS RANGE, A THREAT
FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH A SIGNIFICANT HAIL, AND PERHAPS SOME
TORNADO, THREAT COULD EMERGE.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE
SEVERE RISK APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO IN AND WESTERN
OH WHERE STRONG QPF AND CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SIGNALS (SCP VALUES
OF 4-6) ARE NOTED. HOWEVER, SOME SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO MO AND FAR EASTERN KS WHERE
CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ISOLATED. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO PARTS OF PA AND WV OVERNIGHT, BUT WANING BUOYANCY EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE SEVERE THREAT.
..MOORE.. 03/24/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 24, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF MARCH AMID PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
D4/FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST AND NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER, LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LIKELY MODULATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT -
COMBINED WITH THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. - WILL FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE THE INITIAL STAGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AROUND
THE D7/MON OR D8/TUES TIME FRAME. MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HINT AT AN UPPER-LEVEL REGIME SHIFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE PROMINENT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY
D8/TUESDAY, BUT PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE APPEARS VERY LIMITED.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. THE
STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A MODEST LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERALL, MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
ACCOUNT OF RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE WINDS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NEVADA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEARBY
VICINITY. THOSE LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
..WENDT.. 03/24/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A DEEPER LEE
TROUGH/CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH A
DEEPENING CYCLONE TO THE EAST, WILL PROMOTE 20-25 MPH WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF WYOMING. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW RH
WILL FALL ON ACCOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. STILL, RH OF AROUND 15%
DOES APPEAR PROBABLE, PARTICULARLY IN WYOMING. STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST MONTANA, THOUGH RH WILL LIKELY BE
15-25%. DRIER CONDITIONS (10-20% RH) ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGH
PLAINS, THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER (AROUND
15 MPH). CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WYOMING
WHEREAS ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE MORE PROBABLE TO THE WEST AND EAST.
...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THESE STORMS WOULD BE QUITE HIGH BASED. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
FLASH WITHOUT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL BE QUITE INEFFICIENT ON ACCOUNT OF
LIMITED MIXED-PHASE POTENTIAL.
..WENDT.. 03/24/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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