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LU9DCE > NEWS 28.03.26 10:34l 339 Lines 13989 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 10223_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260328/0915Z 10223@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT MAR 28 07:38:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT MAR 28 07:38:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAR 28 07:38:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT MAR 28 07:38:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAR 28, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS, BUT NO SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST.
...DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST, AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 03/28/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 28, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALOFT, BROAD-SCALE
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE/HEIGHT RISES WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST REGIONS. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH FL SAMPLED SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, AND FURTHER MOISTENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MODULATE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING AND LOCALIZED
ASCENT WITHIN A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NM, AN
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG
HEATING/DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AROUND 250 J/KG SBCAPE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND/OR
LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT
HIGHLIGHTS.
..MOORE.. 03/28/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 28, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS IT MIGRATES EAST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TAKES PLACE ALOFT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ALONG THE TIGHTENING WARM FRONTAL ZONE
OF THE CYCLONE.
ELSEWHERE, MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN FL GULF COAST WHERE SEA-BREEZE ASCENT WITHIN A MOIST AND
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SIMILARLY, ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL
LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
....UPPER MS VALLEY/LAKE MICHIGAN...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEADY DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WI REGION.
INITIALLY DRY AND CAPPED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY, THOUGH INCREASING ASCENT
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DURING THE 00-06 UTC PERIOD. WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY, HODOGRAPH ELONGATION THROUGH THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER
SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUPERCELL OR TWO. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE HINT
THAT SOME DEGREE OF CLUSTERING IS PROBABLE, AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
HAIL THREAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.
..MOORE.. 03/28/2026
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ENHANCED, ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE TROUGHING OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
FARTHER EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LEE TROUGHING.
...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WITH DRY,
RECEPTIVE FUELS AND RH VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO 15-20%, WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND WESTERN IOWA. STRONG 850 MB FLOW
OF 30-40+ KTS COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH AND REDUCED RH VALUES OF 20-25% WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND WESTERN CORN BELT, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THAT SAW APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THURSDAY
EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST...
A DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BRING WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, LOW RH OF 25-35%, AND DRY,
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE LOCALLY
TEMPERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC THAT SAW MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SC INTO SOUTHERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH VALUES
AS LOW AS 20% ARE FORECAST.
...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SUPPORT A DRY, DOWNSLOPE REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AMID
RH VALUES OF 10-15% WILL BRING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT PERIODIC
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WYOMING
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP
RECEPTIVE FUELS AND REDUCED RH OF 15-20%.
...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ARIZONA STRIP...
A SUBTLE, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH AND RH VALUES OF 10-15% (LOCALLY LOWER) WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AMID INCREASINGLY
DRY FUELS.
..CHALMERS.. 03/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON D2/SUNDAY, WHILE ENHANCED, ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, BRINGING
RETURN FLOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND NORTHWEST.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST WESTERLY, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES ON D2/SUNDAY, FAVORING A DRY, DOWNSLOPE
REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF WYOMING. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERLAP LOW RH VALUES OF 10-20%. WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A LOCALIZED AREA OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WYOMING, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING A MORE WIDESPREAD OVERLAP OF RH LESS THAN 15% AND
20+ MPH WINDS AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS APPEARS POSSIBLE, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FUTURE UPGRADE.
SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
(15-20 MPH) FUNNELING DOWN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FARTHER
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, MOST CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ACROSS THIS
REGION. THUS, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE WITHHELD AT THIS TIME DESPITE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10-20%.
...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
DRY AND BREEZY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, VERY LOW RH OF 15-20%, AND
ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS ALIGN.
...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, A CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT DRY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP VERY LOW RH OF 10-15% FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION, THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
...SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO YIELD INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.5-0.8" BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE BETTER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY (~50-150 J/KG MUCAPE) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT, WITH DEEP,
DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS AND LCLS AROUND 3 KM AGL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDER ATOP DRY, RECEPTIVE
FUELS.
..CHALMERS.. 03/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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