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LU9DCE > NEWS 30.03.26 11:34l 371 Lines 15214 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 10360_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<GB7YEW<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 260330/0915Z 10360@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAR 30 08:56:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAR 30 08:56:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAR 30 08:56:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAR 30 08:56:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAR 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR FURTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
TODAY AND TONIGHT AT MID-LEVELS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AS A 50 TO 60 KNOT 850 MB JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
06Z IN THE LA CROSSE VICINITY HAVE MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 2000
TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40
KNOTS. IN ADDITION, 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH
8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN, CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. COMPARED WITH AREAS TO THE WEST,
MUCAPE AND LAPSE RATES IN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER.
FOR THIS REASON, THE HAIL THREAT THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDELY
SPACED AND MARGINAL.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 03/30/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST. DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST LIKELY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE IS NOTED IN EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MEANWHILE, A DIFFUSE LEE
CYCLONE IS NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, THIS CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER WAVE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASINGLY
SPARSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT INTO THE
PLAINS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN A PLUME OF
RETURNING RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
...GREAT LAKES...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE OF THE
APPROACHING CYCLONE. BASED ON LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WESTERLY 40-50 KNOT SHEAR VECTORS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT INITIALLY SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL RISK.
WITH TIME, UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR
SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED - ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
LOW WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST. LATEST HREF/REFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL ACROSS LOWER MI AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE LAKE ERIE REGION
WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 250 M2/S2 ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT DISCRETE STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTIVE
LINES/CLUSTERS, A TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS CONVECTION MOVES
INTO THE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODEST DEEPENING OF A LEE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SUPPORT SOME TIGHTENING OF A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK. AMPLE HEATING/MIXING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY SUFFICIENTLY ERODE INHIBITION AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE ASCENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND/OR COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
(25-30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR) AND DRY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE WIND RISK WITH THE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION.
..MOORE.. 03/30/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 30, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL LIKELY
POSE A LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND THREAT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW RACES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST STALL
ACROSS OK NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND OH
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, AND WILL SUPPORT THE STEADY
STRENGTHENING OF A LEE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO INTO
SOUTHERN KS. NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS A WARM
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WITH
A SHARPENING DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
PROBABLE ALONG BOTH THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
....SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO
OK AND SOUTHERN KS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AS INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS AN EML EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. DESPITE INITIAL CAPPING, ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL LIKELY
ERODE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND OK ALONG THE DRYLINE. INITIALLY
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN FORECASTED
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS; HOWEVER, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT RELATIVELY QUICK
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR BY THE EVENING HOURS AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASINGLY ORIENTS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND BROAD-SCALE ASCENT
STRENGTHENS WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. AS UPSCALE GROWTH
OCCURS, DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT THREAT.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, SPREAD PERSISTS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
WAVE, WHICH BOTH MAY INFLUENCE THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
AND THE SUBSEQUENT SEVERE RISK.
...OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC...
NEBULOUS BROAD-SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
WESTERLY 25-30 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
25-30 F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT COULD POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR RISK
PROBABILITIES, BUT A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY
EMERGE.
..MOORE.. 03/30/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 30, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC REGIME - PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
DURING THE LATE-WEEK/EARLY-WEEKEND PERIOD.
...D4/THURSDAY - MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
STALL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LOW. LONG-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL SUPPORT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION, AND 35-45 KNOT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS. UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING STORM MODE PERSIST BASED ON MEAN WIND VECTORS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, BUT SOME SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR.
...D5/FRIDAY - CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THAT AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS CO/KS AND A
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE (POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS) INTO OK AND EASTERN KS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING LOW APPEARS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
BASED ON DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF SIGNALS, AND STRENGTHENING
FLOW ALOFT MAY FAVOR DISCRETE STORM MODES FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, NOTABLY THE 00Z GEFS,
SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHERN OK INTO EASTERN KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (E.G.
30% PROBABILITY FOR SCP VALUES ABOVE 5). DESPITE IMPROVING AGREEMENT
AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THIS ALIGNMENT HAS ONLY
EMERGED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK IF THIS TREND
HOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...D6/SATURDAY - OHIO VALLEY...
SIMILAR TO D5/FRIDAY, GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION AND NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH D6/SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL USHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE DIURNAL HEATING MAY SUPPORT EITHER DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW CONVECTION ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION
OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION (THOUGH THE QUALITY AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE). REGARDLESS,
INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS SHOULD PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS WITH
D5/FRIDAY, RISK PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED AND CONFIDENCE THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY QUALITY
INCREASES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY, WITH AN EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE POISED TO TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES, SUPPORTING SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD 15+ MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID
15-20 PERCENT RH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS. CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING, WHERE SURFACE
WINDS COULD SUSTAIN OVER 25 MPH FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A DEEP AND
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, LIGHTNING OVER DRYING FUELS WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR, WARRANTING ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
(WEDNESDAY), WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ENCOURAGE DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN 15 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID 15 PERCENT RH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD DRY FUELS, WARRANTING THE INTRODUCTION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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