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LU9DCE > NEWS 08.04.26 13:34l 354 Lines 14380 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 11104_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-APR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260408/1130Z 11104@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED APR 8 08:58:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED APR 8 08:58:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED APR 8 08:58:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED APR 8 08:58:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC APR 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TODAY,
SUPPORTING MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
DESPITE INITIALLY MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
THE FL PENINSULA, AS WAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING FLASHES MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
CA SURROUNDING AREAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE COASTLINE.
...CENTRAL INTO WESTERN KANSAS...
BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, CLEAR SKIES AND ROBUST HEATING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH IS POISED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY
AROUND OR AFTER 20Z, WHEN 30+ F T/TD SPREADS SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
HIGH-BASED MULTICELLS WILL BE THE LIKELY STORM MODE, AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELONGATED, STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL.
..SQUITIERI/CHALMERS.. 04/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC APR 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID MISSOURI VALLEY WESTWARD INTO KANSAS, AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
...LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
ON THURSDAY, AS WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AT
THE SURFACE, MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT SHOW ABOUT 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 20 F
ALONG MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR, WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY, MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 04/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC APR 8, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD
INTO THE OZARKS.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY,
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON, MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, AND SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 04/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC APR 8, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...SATURDAY/DAY 4 TO MONDAY/DAY 6...
ON SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S., AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TO NEAR THE WEST COAST.
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 1000 J/KG IN
SOME AREAS, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR BEING IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE THREAT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THIS AIRMASS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A 50 TO 60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS
HAPPENS, THEN A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORMS,
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO
THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.
ON MONDAY, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
...TUESDAY/DAY 7 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...
THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH IS FINALLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WHERE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CREATE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER PARTS OF THE MOIST SECTOR, SUGGESTING THAT A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO, CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME
TORNADOES.
ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL STATES, WITH A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
OZARKS. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, AT THIS
EXTENDED RANGE, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING SEVERE
THREAT MAGNITUDE AND SPACING.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST.
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH REDUCED RH OF 25-35% AND
DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS TO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS (15-20 MPH) WILL OVERLAP MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS
~20% (LOCALLY LOWER) DURING PEAK MIXING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO EASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA; HOWEVER, RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WHERE GAP
FLOWS AND TERRAIN EFFECTS ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING,
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND EASTERN COLORADO. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS, RH, AND FUELS IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED
THRESHOLDS, THUS WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS.. 04/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES ON
D2/THURSDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH A
TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS.
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-20% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AMID PEAK
MIXING. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS
(FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY EXTEND UP TO ~500 MB
OR 3-4 KM AGL), MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED,
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF
HALF AN INCH OR LESS, LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT
OUTFLOW/WIND GUSTS FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY AUGMENT SURFACE
WINDS SPEEDS. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF
50-100 J/KG MUCAPE ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AN OCCASIONAL DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK ISSUANCES.
...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP LOW RH OF
15-20% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
THESE FACTORS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, RECENT COOLER WEATHER, PRECIPITATION,
AND RESULTANT MARGINAL FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS.. 04/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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