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LU9DCE > NEWS 10.04.26 14:04l 433 Lines 18415 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 11253_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-APR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260410/1131Z 11253@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI APR 10 08:32:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI APR 10 08:32:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 10 08:32:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI APR 10 08:32:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC APR 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST
OR/SOUTHWEST ID...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO, AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM, A MID/UPPER
LOW INITIALLY OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST.
...PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION, AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 1500 J/KG
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MINIMAL MLCINH BY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK
INTO THE OZARKS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT
AND WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS VICINITY.
WITH RATHER MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, STORM ORGANIZATION AND DURATION MAY
GENERALLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HOWEVER, MORE ORGANIZED CELLS MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR THE BOUNDARY, WHERE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR/SRH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD, THOUGH LOCALIZED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST OR/SOUTHWEST ID AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CA...
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
INTERIOR NORTHWEST. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RATHER STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR/ABOVE 500 J/KG, DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
TIME, WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST OR/SOUTHWEST ID.
MODESTLY ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO
AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS IN CALIFORNIA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AREA, COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (NEAR/BELOW -20C AT 500 MB) MAY
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES COULD ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT CELL
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO, THOUGH THIS
POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN/CHALMERS.. 04/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY SATURDAY.
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MIGRATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AHEAD OF A LARGER-SCALE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20-40 KT
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN OVER MONTANA AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHILE LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT 50S AND LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE MID-MO VALLEY, AND WESTWARD TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODESTLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING, SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
UPDRAFTS COULD OCCUR AND LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FURTHER NORTH, A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS KS/NE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPPING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, IF ANY CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR THE WARM FRONT, A SEVERE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN, AND WILL MAINTAIN LEVEL 1 OF 5/MARGINAL RISK.
ADDITIONALLY CELLS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS/WESTERN NE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
...CENTRAL CA...
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL VALLEY
VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK (LESS
THAN 400 J/KG MLCAPE), BUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS. AS THE UPPER LOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT, A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
...GREAT BASIN VICINITY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER, A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND AROUND 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH 600 MB COULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED.
..LEITMAN.. 04/10/2026
READ MORE
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SPC APR 10, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY. LOW-AMPLITUDE, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE U.S.
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM MN
INTO NE AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK/TX. LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM TX INTO IA/IL/WI.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX, AND POSSIBLY NORTHWARD INTO KS AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS A CONTINUATION OF DAY 2 OVERNIGHT STORMS AND
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS MAY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER IN
THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORTWAVE, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS. FURTHERMORE, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BE ILL-TIMED
WITH PEAK HEATING, AND MAY LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME SEVERE RISK, ALBEIT CONDITIONAL, WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTH TX. SUPERCELL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WITH WEAK CAPPING NOTED JUST ABOVE
850 MB. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.
STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, THOUGH SEVERE RISK WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY, WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..LEITMAN.. 04/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 10, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4-6/MON-WED -- CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL/EVOLUTION DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS THE WEST ON MONDAY, AND EMERGE OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
ON MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KS/OK/TX AND A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WI. SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEUTRAL. NEVERTHELESS, COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
(SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F) WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION. DURING THE EVENING, A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS, OVERSPREADING THE
SURFACE DRYLINE. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
BY TUESDAY, THE GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTERN
TROUGH, EJECTING IT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HANGS THE TROUGH BACK WEST AND IS SLOWER. NEVERTHELESS, A
SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS THE PLAINS, POSING A SUPERCELL/ALL-HAZARDS RISK.
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES VICINITY CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING SOME. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOME
SEVERE RISK SHOULD PERSIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP, BUT AT LEAST SOME RISK SHOULD
EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY.
...DAYS 7-8/THU-FRI...
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW HEADING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LARGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING MAY PERSIST,
SUGGESTING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST FOR
PARTS OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BEHIND IT. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY. DESPITE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER, MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 15-20% (LOCALLY DOWN TO 10%) ARE FORECAST DURING PEAK
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECONDITIONED, DRYING FUELS FROM
THURSDAY, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH
INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE WINDS OVERLAP WITH LOCALLY LOWER RH
VALUES, BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BRIEF SHOULD
THEY MATERIALIZE. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODESTLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW (25-35 KTS WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER) WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION.
...PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 MPH (WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH) COMBINED WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO 30-35% ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP A REGION OF
DRYING AND POTENTIALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS FROM NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH ERCS ACROSS THIS REGION APPROACHING
THE 97TH PERCENTILE, THIS OVERLAP OF WINDS/RH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
HOURS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS, INCREASING
MOISTURE, AND DECREASING WINDS SPEEDS LATER THIS EVENING, WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS.. 04/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
CONUS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST ON
D2/SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY APPROACH
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WHILE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES.
...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MAY BRIEFLY
OVERLAP REDUCED RH VALUES OF 15-20% ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FUELS WILL HAVE BEEN
PRECONDITIONED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY
INHIBIT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THUS TEMPER RH REDUCTIONS.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK ISSUANCES.
..CHALMERS.. 04/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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