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LU9DCE > NEWS 15.04.26 14:04l 646 Lines 21610 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 11591_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-APR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260415/1131Z 11591@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117
WW 117 SEVERE TSTM IA IL 150440Z - 150900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A FEW STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF OTTUMWA IA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOLINE IL. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW
115...WW 116...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25030.
...HART
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0118 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 118
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FDY
TO 25 NNE FDY TO 40 WNW CLE TO 25 NNE CLE.
..DEAN..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...CLE...IWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 118
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC043-077-093-123-143-147-150940-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ERIE HURON LORAIN
OTTAWA SANDUSKY SENECA
LEZ143-144-145-163-164-165-150940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0117 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE OXV TO
35 NE MLI.
..DEAN..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 117
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC131-161-150940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MERCER ROCK ISLAND
IAC101-107-115-139-163-183-150940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON KEOKUK LOUISA
MUSCATINE SCOTT WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0116 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0116 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0114 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 114
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MKO TO
30 NE MKO TO 30 WSW JLN.
..THOMPSON..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 114
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-021-041-115-135-150540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
OTTAWA SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 113 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0113 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BEH TO
20 SE AZO TO 20 WSW JXN TO 15 SE LAN TO 30 NW MTC TO 35 S BAX TO
15 ENE BAX.
..DEAN..04/15/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC039-087-091-141-151-150640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELKHART LAGRANGE LA PORTE
ST. JOSEPH STEUBEN
MIC021-023-027-059-063-065-075-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-151-
161-163-150640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM
JACKSON LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND
ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH SANILAC
WASHTENAW WAYNE
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-LMZ043-046-080-849-
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED APR 15 08:26:03 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED APR 15 08:26:03 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC APR 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO EASTERN NE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A BROAD, UNCAPPED, AND MODERATELY SHEARED WARM
SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS WARM
SECTOR, WHETHER INDUCED BY ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE OR
BY LOCALIZED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
...IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN MO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS LENDS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND 50-60 KNOT 500 MB
FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN MO. A
FOCUSED ZONE OF HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EMERGE ROUGHLY ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT WILL LOCALLY AUGMENT SRH AND COULD SUPPORT A STRONG
TORNADO. HREF/REFS GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW THE STRONGEST UH SIGNALS
ACROSS THIS ZONE, WARRANTING HIGHER (5%) TORNADO PROBABILITIES.
...OZARKS INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
FURTHER SOUTH, INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO OK AND NORTH TX BY MID-AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, MEAN FLOW VECTORS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE
CLUSTERING AND UPSCALE GROWTH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION.
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE REFLECTED IN RECENT HREF/REFS GUIDANCE
IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS, BUT WEAK, UH STREAKS, AS WELL AS IN
DETERMINISTIC CAM SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS
EMERGING BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND THE OZARK
PLATEAU. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHAT INFLUENCE - IF ANY- THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM SECTOR OR IF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAN EMERGE AND FOCUS A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT ALONG
MESOSCALE CORRIDORS. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, ALL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WERE EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAIRLY WIDE ENVELOPE
OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES, MOST OF WHICH WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL, WIND, AND TORNADOES.
...GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW TO MID-60S DEWPOINTS AND THE EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF AN EML WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1000-1500
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ALOFT, 40-50 KNOT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITHIN THE CREST OF A MODEST RIDGE, ESTABLISHING A ZONAL
CORRIDOR OF A BUOYANT AND MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM MCSS ACROSS MI, AR, AND IA
WILL LIKELY RESIDE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY PEAK HEATING.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES
WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THIS
SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY MOST RECENT CAMS, WHICH SHOW MULTIPLE
CONVECTION BANDS TRAVERSING THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED (AND
WHERE CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EMERGE) REMAINS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN VARIANCE IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
..MOORE/WENDT.. 04/15/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
PARTS OF NEW YORK.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO NEW YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION GIVEN
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
... NEW YORK VICINITY...
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER MID/UPPER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
30+ KT. HEATING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHILE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (NEAR -12 C AT
500 MB) WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ACCOMPANYING
RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
...MID-SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY...
CONVECTION POSING A RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY BE GOING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MO BOOTHEEL VICINITY THURSDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE MORE MARGINAL DUE TO POSSIBLE MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
LINGERING, LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 15, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MS VALLEY...
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. FLOW AT 850-700 MB AROUND 40-60 KT WILL
BE COMMON. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN
TO A LOW OVER EASTERN NE FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE NE LOW INTO CENTRAL KS, NORTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN TX. A WARM FRONT INITIALLY ARCING ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN
MN INTO WI. A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY
MIDDAY, WITH A NARROW PLUME OF LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTH
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN AND WI. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8
C/KM) WILL OVERSPREAD THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
AS STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES
BY MID AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
WHILE INITIAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SUPERCELL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES,
LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN
RAPID UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A QLCS, PARTICULARLY FROM NORTHEAST
KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO IA. A WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE QLCS TORNADOES AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, AN ALL-HAZARDS RISK WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THAT ACTIVITY.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO OK, SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE MORE PROBABLE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THIS
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE EVENING. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS WILL POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL, STRONG TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME, THE COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LINEAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT,
POSING A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO RISK DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPING, WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MORE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT MAY LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
WESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL TX.
..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC APR 15, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/SAT - OHIO VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVER WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM LOWER MI INTO IN/IL.
NEVERTHELESS, STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW (40-60 KT IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER) WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EVEN AMID WEAK
INSTABILITY. AS SUCH, A DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK WILL ACCOMPANY
LINEAR CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO
EVENING.
...DAYS 5-6/SUN-MON...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE DAY 4
PERIOD WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
...DAYS 7-8/TUE-WED...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS, AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME, OR IF UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED. IF THE TROUGH EJECTS, SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE A
WEAK LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST. SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY 20 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE AMID A DRY AIRMASS (10-20% RH BY THE AFTERNOON).
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED GIVEN CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL
AND DRY FUELS.
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S F. RH OF 25-35% IS
PROBABLE FOR MOST AREAS, BUT VALUES CLOSER TO 20% MAY OCCUR LOCALLY.
VERY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..WENDT.. 04/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS ON THURSDAY. A MODEST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THIS REGION WILL GENERALLY EXIST IN BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM JET AND THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY OCCUR BY LATE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. RH COULD
APPROACH SINGLE DIGITS LOCALLY, BUT WILL MORE BROADLY BE 10-20%.
THIS IS FORECAST DESPITE INCREASING MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH TIME. THE
OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED CRITICAL COULD OCCUR LOCALLY, BUT CONFIDENCE
HIGHLIGHTING WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW.
...FAR EASTERN WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA...
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RH
VALUES OF 10-20% WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
FURTHER, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A STARK SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND GREATER RH. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, THE MORE SOUTHERN FRONTAL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
WEIGHTED HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST.
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO MID-ATLANTIC...
THE PERSISTENT DRY RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S F WILL AGAIN PROMOTE A BROAD
AREA OF REDUCED RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. 25-35% WILL AGAIN BE
COMMON, BUT AREAS NEAR 20% ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 10-15 MPH, BUT VERY DRY FUELS WILL STILL SUPPORT A
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..WENDT.. 04/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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