| |
LU9DCE > NEWS 17.03.26 10:34l 285 Lines 10242 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 9414_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-MAR
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260317/0915Z 9414@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 17 07:02:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAR 17 07:02:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 17 07:02:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAR 17 07:02:01 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC MAR 17, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
U.S. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT BLOCKING WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES ONE NOTABLE
MID-LEVEL HIGH, WHICH MAY BUILD FURTHER WHILE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
SHIFT INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE-SCALE RIDGING LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC THROUGH THE ROCKIES, WITH AT LEAST
SOME EXPANSION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL HIGH MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM
DOWNSTREAM, WITHIN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN MID-LATITUDE ATLANTIC, AS A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMERGE FROM LINGERING LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING
INITIALLY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
BOTH OF THE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE WITHIN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDE ATLANTIC.
AS THIS OCCURS, A BROAD, DEEP AND OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES,
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WHILE SLOWING/STALLING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO
CARIBBEAN. THE CENTER OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING LIKELY WILL SHIFT FROM
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC VICINITY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL
BE MAINTAINED TO THE SOUTHWEST, ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS REGIME, DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S., WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..KERR.. 03/17/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 17, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN STATES, WITH AN
UPPER HIGH PROMINENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST
COAST INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA. AS SUCH, THE PATTERN WILL OFFER
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVE MOISTURE FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FL STRAITS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW WEAK OCEANIC THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LIKELY JUST OFF THE FL
PENINSULA.
..JEWELL.. 03/17/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 17, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ON THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH PROMINENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST, NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES, AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EAST INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA
WILL PRECLUDE ANY MOISTURE RETURN, WITH A DECIDED LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAND.
..JEWELL.. 03/17/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAR 17, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHWEST FROM FRI/D4 INTO SAT/D5,
BUT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS A PROGRESSIVE, LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SUN/D6 TO TUE/D8 PERIOD, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE POSSIBLY RE-BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY BECOMES LOW FOR THAT
PATTERN CHANGE.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE, LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAY DEVELOP FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
SUN/D6 INTO MON/D7. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, ONLY
MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED. WHILE
THIS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION ON SUNDAY/D6, SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, A REINFORCING HIGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE EAST, RESULTING IN STABLE
CONDITIONS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE (DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS OVER THE PLAINS
ARE NEAR/BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-MARCH). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER REGIONS WITH RECENT WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL OK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED (AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 10-15%) FROM WESTERN TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS WINDS THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH;
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDER-MIXES THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN DRY
RETURN FLOW REGIMES WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND WEAKER WINDS THAN
ACTUALLY OBSERVED. BASED ON THIS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS
UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A TARGETED CRITICAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS
THIS REGION.
...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WESTERLY 15-20 MPH WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SUPPORT SEVERAL AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RH REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 20% WITH
AREAS OF 15% POSSIBLE. SOLUTIONS THAT TYPICALLY OVER-MIX IN THESE
REGIMES (NOTABLY THE RAP AND HRRR) HINT THAT 20-25 MPH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR NORTHEAST CO AND PARTS OF THE
NE PANHANDLE WHERE ACTIVE WILDFIRES HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN RECENT
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR IS LIMITED DUE TO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT, BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, OBSERVED TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..MOORE.. 03/17/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, LEE TROUGHING WILL BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS CENTRAL MT
TO EASTERN WY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH (80%) IN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL WY INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHEAST CO. A RESUMPTION
OF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE
20-25% RANGE BASED ON ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. DRIER/MORE WELL-MIXED
SOLUTIONS HINT AT RH REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS THE 10-15% RANGE, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WY). HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON MODEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES (AROUND
40-50% PROBABILITY OF RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 15%). REGARDLESS,
ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND PRECEDING DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN DRY FUELS (AND/OR HELP CURE FINE FUELS IN
AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION) TO SUPPORT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..MOORE.. 03/17/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
PYTHON PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 1.1
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
