W7EES  > SWPC     02.03.21 17:00z 46 Lines 1730 Bytes #155 (0) @ WW
BID : 26654_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210301/2330Z 26654@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 01/0902Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 01/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 01/0307Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1074 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 071
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 071/071/070
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  017/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  014/018-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/30


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