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W7EES  > SWPC     18.02.19 23:15l 48 Lines 1597 Bytes #6 (0) @ WW
BID : 7356_W7EES
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Sent: 190121/0030Z 7356@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/1832Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on day three (23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 069
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  006/005-006/005-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/60

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