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W7EES  > SWPC     18.02.19 21:45l 49 Lines 1552 Bytes #6 (0) @ WW
BID : 7317_W7EES
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<CX2SA<N3HYM<LU9DCE<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190119/0015Z 7317@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/0139Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 069
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 069/069/071
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10






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