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LU9DCE > ALERT    14.05.19 09:15l 207 Lines 11439 Bytes #4 (0) @ WW
BID : 24416_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 05
Sent: 190514/0700Z 24416@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CDT Tue May 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...SUMMARY...  Widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of
hail and damaging wind are possible across parts of central and
southern Florida today. A few strong storms are possible across
parts of Missouri, parts of central and eastern Texas, and possibly
over Nebraska during the afternoon and evening.
An upper low over New England will pivot eastward today, sending
the attendant upper trough over the eastern U.S. offshore over
the western Atlantic.  A surface low associated with this system
will lift northeast toward the eastern Canadian maritimes. The
cold front associated with this low will arc southwestward across
the western Atlantic, crossing the central Florida peninsula and
stretching westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico to south
Texas. The front will sag southward into South Florida, becoming
quasi-stationary across southern Texas and the northern Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the period. This feature will be a focus for
strong to severe storms today across portions of the central and
southern FL peninsula.
Elsewhere, an amplified upper ridge will build eastward across the
Rockies to the High Plains vicinity with a couple of subtle shortwave
impulses migrating through northwest flow on the eastern flank of the
ridge from western SD/NE to IA/MO. Increasing southerly/southeasterly
low level flow will allow for moisture to build northward across
the Plains vicinity, and isolated to widely scattered strong to
severe storms may occur with these subtle impulses.
...Central/Southern FL...
Strong westerly flow associated with both a weakness in southern
stream flow and within the base of the exiting larger-scale eastern
U.S. trough will persist across the FL peninsula today. Strong
heating ahead of the surface cold front and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km
will result in SBCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.  Effective shear
is somewhat marginal, around 25 kt, but given the thermodynamic
environment should be adequate for isolated strong to severe
storms. Deep layer flow will remain generally parallel to the surface
boundary, indicating that storms, especially those closest to the
front, will become undercut. Furthermore, elongated hodographs
suggests splitting cells, which combined with weak low level shear
(favoring outflow-dominant convection), could result in destructive
interference and tempering of a more widespread/longer-lived threat.
Hail and a few damaging gusts are possible with these storms through
early evening.
...Far Eastern KS into Central MO...
Boundary layer moisture will spread northward today with dewpoints
climbing into the low to mid 60s across eastern OK/KS into
western/central AR/MO. A warm front will lift northeast across MO,
from south-central IA stretching southeastward along the MS River.
Deep layer flow will remain modest, with bulk shear around 25 kt,
but 7.5-8 C/km lapse rates and 2000-3000 J/km MLCAPE in the presence
of weak impulses migrating through northwesterly flow should result
in isolated convection by afternoon. Hail and a strong gust or two
will be the main concern with this activity. Given weak forcing,
threat should diminish quickly with loss of daytime heating and a
stabilizing boundary layer around sunset.
...Western SD into Western/Central NE...
Low level easterly flow will result in modestly increasing boundary
layer moisture as dewpoints climb into the mid 40s to low 50s by
00z. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in
weak destabilization of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amidst strong effective
shear around 40-50 kt. Isolated to widely scattered storms may
develop along a surface trough in modest upslope flow. Given
a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer/steep low level lapse rates, a
few strong gusts and maybe hail will be possible with strongest
...Southern into Central Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing this morning as the remnants
of convection moving southeast across the Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Valley as of 0530z. East/southeasterly return flow will
maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low
70s. The lack of stronger forcing for ascent will result in mainly
diurnally driven convection. Cloud cover from morning convection may
limit destabilization during the afternoon, but a few strong storms
are possible where pockets of stronger heating occur.  However,
threat appears too conditional/limited to include probabilities at
this time.
..Leitman/Karstens.. 05/14/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CDT Mon May 13 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated large hail is possible across parts of North
Dakota into northwest Minnesota on Wednesday, from late afternoon
through evening.
...Synopsis...  An upper ridge will drift eastward into the Plains,
as a large-scale upper trough develops over the West. The ridge
will flatten a bit over the northern Plains late in the day as a
low-amplitude shortwave develops into southern MB. At the surface,
generally low pressures will exist over northern Plains, with a
mobile surface trough shifting winds across western ND. Ahead of
this feature, strengthening southerly winds will transport moisture
north with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing and supporting isolated
severe hail.
To the south, a large area of instability will develop from NE/KS
into MO, OK and AR, with minor lift via subtle waves aloft embedded
in the northwest flow supporting isolated thunderstorms, mainly
from MO, AR, and into western TN.
...Northern Plains...  Strong heating will occur over the western
Dakotas near the surface trough, with dewpoints rising into the mid
to upper 50s F. Veering winds with height along with good mid to
upper flow will lengthen hodographs and support cellular activity,
possibly a supercell or two. Large hail appears to be the primary
threat, becoming elevated into northwest MN late. If it becomes
apparent more storms will form than currently expected, a small
Slight Risk may be considered in later outlooks.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Jewell.. 05/14/2019
 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113
AM CDT Tue May 14 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across
parts of Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and Indiana
Thursday afternoon and evening. Hail and wind are most likely.
...Synopsis...  An expansive trough of low pressure will develop
across the northern Rockies into the central Plains in advance
of a powerful upper trough across the West. The strongest height
falls will be over the Great Basin with a cold front moving across
NV during the day and into UT by evening. However, little if any
instability will be present to support any severe weather. Otherwise,
strong southwest flow aloft will approach the High Plains by
Friday morning.
Moisture will increase across the Plains as southerly winds persist
and increase overnight. A front will move southeastward across MN
and WI, stalling across NE/IA/northern IL overnight. This corridor,
from IA into northern IL and IN, may experience bouts of strong to
locally severe storms.
...Upper MS Valley across parts of the Midwest...  A low-amplitude
shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly southeast across the
Upper Great Lakes, with a belt of moderate northwest flow from MN to
OH. Dewpoints will rise ahead of a weak front from northern IA into
central WI. Moderate to strong instability will develop, with MUCAPE
up to 3000 J/kg. Lift will be focused along the front, and storms may
not redevelop until after 00Z when the low-level jet increases. At
least isolated large hail or damaging winds will be possible.
..Jewell.. 05/14/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...  An upper-level ridge will build across much of the
West and remain quasi-stationary throughout the day. Mid-level flow
through the crest of the ridge should remain mostly marginal (30-40
kt). The latest forecast guidance indicates perhaps some increasing
amplification of the ridge and attendant trough along the West
Coast compared to previous runs, bringing some marginally enhanced
mid-level flow over portions of Nevada into western Utah. Diurnal
heating combined with vertical mixing should allow for breezy
conditions to develop during the afternoon in this region. However,
factors precluding the introduction of any fire-weather highlights
include RH values, which may drop into the 20% range, and fuels,
which remain mostly unreceptive to large-fire spread.
..Karstens.. 05/14/2019
...Please see for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...  The upper-level ridge over the inter-mountain West
will continue to amplify as a deep-layer trough enters the West
Coast. Mid-level flow along the base of the trough should be strong,
with 45-60 kt flow overspreading portions of southern California
into southern Nevada and western Arizona. Diurnal heating should
allow for vertical momentum transfer into the boundary layer,
resulting in sustained winds of 25-30 mph developing over this
region during the afternoon, while RH values fall into the 20%
range, perhaps into the teens in localized areas. Again, fuels
across the regions generally remain unreceptive of large-fire
spread. However, the aforementioned forecast conditions represent
an uptick in fire-weather potential relative to previous model
guidance. For now, no areas have been introduced, but should these
conditions continue to trend up or show run-to-run consistency,
an elevated designation may be needed in later outlooks.
..Karstens.. 05/14/2019
...Please see for graphic product...


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