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LU9DCE > ALERT    13.06.19 09:15l 164 Lines 9180 Bytes #5 (0) @ WW
BID : 26677_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 06
Sent: 190613/0701Z 26677@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...SUMMARY...  The primary severe thunderstorm threat is expected to
be over northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon
and evening. Other isolated severe storms are possible near the
Allegheny Mountains and Blue Ridge, the east coast of Florida,
and the northern Great Basin.
...Southern/Central High Plains...  Low-level moisture will begin to
return to a larger portion of the central/southern High Plains today,
as a surface trough strengthens in the lee of the Rockies. Dewpoints
into the 50s F are expected east of the surface trough across the
southern High Plains by afternoon, while dewpoints of 45-50 F are
likely into the central High Plains. Steep midlevel lapse rates
combined with the increased low-level moisture should result in
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range)
by peak heating. Meanwhile, south-southeasterly low-level flow
veering to moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will result in
sufficient effective shear (35-45 kt) to support an organized severe
thunderstorm threat.  While large-scale ascent may be somewhat
nebulous during the day, especially with southward extent, strong
heating/mixing and sufficient convergence near the dryline should
support scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon across
much of the central/southern High Plains.
A few supercells will be possible with initial thunderstorm
development, with an attendant risk of large hail and locally
severe wind gusts. As the low-level jet increases this evening,
upscale growth into one or more clusters is possible, with a
corresponding downstream increase in the severe wind threat. The
best forecast overlap of shear and instability, and also the best
signal in recent CAM guidance, lies over northeast NM into the TX
Panhandle, and a Slight Risk has been introduced for this area,
though at least isolated severe hail/wind will be possible across
the remainder of the central/southern High Plains into the evening.
...Allegheny Mountains/Blue Ridge and Vicinity...  A deep
upper trough will move northeastward into New England today.
In conjunction with the trough, an occluding cyclone will move
into Ontario, while a coastal low will move from the Mid Atlantic
region toward downeast Maine by Friday morning. While the richest
low-level moisture will be confined near the coast and offshore,
modest instability may develop ahead of a cold front from the
Allegheny Plateau into portions of the Mid Atlantic. While convection
across this region will likely be relatively low-topped, sufficient
low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging
wind this afternoon into the early evening.
...Northern Great Basin...  Scattered thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon into the early evening ahead of a low-amplitude
upper trough over the Great Basin.  While buoyancy will likely
remain rather weak, steep low/midlevel lapse rates will support a
threat of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally
severe hail with the strongest cells.
...Florida Atlantic Coast...  Scattered thunderstorms are expected
across much of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. While midlevel
southwesterly flow will remain rather modest across the area,
effective shear will be somewhat enhanced near the sea breeze across
the eastern portion of the peninsula, supporting some organized
structures capable of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some
small hail.
..Dean/Bentley.. 06/13/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103
AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...SUMMARY...  Strong-severe thunderstorms may develop across parts
of the Plains Friday.
Large-scale height gradient is expected to weaken across the
western/central CONUS into the day2 period as a strong short-wave
trough ejects across the northeastern States. Despite the relaxing
height field, two distinct streams, both a northern and southern,
will remain active and convectively influential.
Early in the period, thunderstorm complex may be ongoing across
the southern Plains, likely an extension of late day1 activity that
evolves over the High Plains. This convection will be modulated by
a LLJ that should shift into central OK by 18z then into southwest
MO by late afternoon. As a result, early-day thunderstorm complex
should propagate east in conjunction with LLJ. While some hail
or gusty winds could accompany this activity, in all likelihood
more significant convection should evolve near the dryline by late
afternoon. Latest thinking is strong boundary-layer heating will
be noted across NM/west TX such that convective temperatures will
be breached by 21z. Forecast soundings exhibit very deep boundary
layer (approaching 500mb) across eastern NM as temperatures soar
into the lower-mid 90s. As a result, surface heating should prove
instrumental in thunderstorm initiation. Have introduced 15% severe
probs along the dryline where greatest concentration of organized
deep convection is expected from eastern CO into the eastern TX
Panhandle. Slow-moving supercells should evolve across this region
and large hail is the greatest severe risk.
Other isolated severe storms may ultimately develop along southern
fringe of aforementioned northern stream, along surface front that
sags south of the international border across MT/ND/MN. Buoyancy
is a bit weaker across this region but isolated wind/hail could be
noted with the most robust updrafts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   5%     - Slight Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:     15%     - Slight
..Darrow.. 06/13/2019
 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153
AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...SUMMARY...  Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday. Isolated
severe is also possible across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley.
Seasonally cool low-latitude mid-level stream is expected to continue
across the southwestern US into the southern High Plains.  Latest
guidance suggests a weak but notable short-wave trough will eject
to near the TX/NM border by 16/00z. In response to this feature,
easterly boundary-layer flow should strengthen across western
KS/eastern CO north of a lee low that should settle into the TX
Panhandle. Sharp dryline should evolve which will serve as a focus
for non-terrain induced convection. Strong boundary-layer heating
across eastern CO will weaken CINH such that thunderstorms evolve
off the higher terrain by 21z. This activity will spread/develop
east, likely growing upscale as favorably moist easterly upslope
flow feeds this convection. While slow-moving supercells may be the
initial storm mode, a larger complex of storms will likely evolve
over the central Plains.
Farther south into the TX Panhandle, very strong heating across the
TX south Plains will allow the dryline to mix into the eastern TX
Panhandle. Forecast soundings exhibit extreme SBCAPE near the TX/OK
border with values in excess of 5000 J/kg. If low-level moisture
returns to this region as currently forecast, intense, slow-moving
supercells should easilyix toward the surface with daytime
heating. Wind speeds are expected to be around 20 to 25 mph across
much of eastern Arizona and southern New Mexico. Critical conditions
may also be possible in southeastern New Mexico, but decided to
keep the critical area west of that area due to significant rainfall
across portions of this area over the past week. In addition, kept
eastern portions of the Mogollon Rim out of the critical area due
to a combination of less favorable fuels and more marginal critical
meteorological conditions at the higher elevations.
..Bentley.. 06/13/2019
...Please see for graphic product...


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