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LU9DCE > ALERT    15.08.18 09:15l 183 Lines 10228 Bytes #4 (0) @ WW
BID : 25481_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 08 2018
Sent: 180815/0701Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:25481 [TORTUGUITAS] $:25481_LU9DC

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...SUMMARY...  A few severe thunderstorms with isolated large
hail and wind damage will be possible over parts of the central
and northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe
thunderstorms with strong wind gusts will also be possible from
eastern parts of the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley and
in parts of the Northeast.
...Central and Northern Plains...  A positively tilted shortwave
trough will move eastward across the central and northern High Plains
today.  At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across
the central Rockies attendant to a deepening low in the vicinity of
the Black Hills. A quasi-stationary front should be in place from
near the low eastward across southern South Dakota. As surface
heating takes place today, convective initiation will be focused
along the boundary.  Thunderstorms should first develop in the higher
terrain of the Black Hills this afternoon and then spread eastward
across southern South Dakota during the late afternoon. A gradual
expansion southwestward into northwest Nebraska along the cold
front should also occur during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front by late afternoon
show surface dewpoints from 60 to 65 F in north-central Nebraska
and southern South Dakota where moderate instability should be
in place by late afternoon. The forecast soundings also show 0-6
km shear mostly in the 25 to 35 kt range suggesting that the shear
will be strong enough for storm organization. Although supercell may
not be the favored mode, strong multicells would have a potential
for a severe threat. Isolated large hail and wind damage would
be possible with the more intense multicells especially if a cold
pool can organize. The severe threat should persist into the early
to mid evening as the shortwave trough comes out slowly into the
central and northern Plains.
...Southern Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough will move slowly eastward across the Ozarks
and Arklatex today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
place from eastern Oklahoma extending east-northeastward into the
mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Surface dewpoints along
this corridor should be in the 65 to 70 F range resulting in the
development of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, a
low-level jet of 30 to 40 kt is forecast just ahead of the shortwave
trough from northeast Arkansas into southern Illinois. This feature
along with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels should
enhance deep-layer shear enough for a marginal severe threat to
develop. Multicells that initiate in areas that destabilize the
most may be able to produce isolated marginally severe wind gusts.
...Northeast...  A shortwave trough will move across northern
sections of the Great Lakes today as a cold front advances
southeastward into northern sections of the Northeastern
states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints across much of New
York into New England should be in the 60s F. This should result in
pockets of moderate instability by mid to late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm across the region.  Thunderstorms are forecast
to develop along the front and move across the Canada and United
States border during the late afternoon. Some of these storms could
have a marginal wind-damage threat due to the instability and steep
low-level lapse rates.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/15/2018
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
Thursday over a part of the central Plains. Other strong storms
are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys.
Deamplifying shortwave trough will move northeast through the Ohio
Valley, while an upstream impulse embedded within northwest flow
advances southeast through the Central Plains and middle MS Valley.
A convectively reinforced front will advance slowly south through
the central Plains, while a weaker front/trough accompanies the
shortwave trough into the OH Valley, with trailing portion extending
southwest into OK.
...Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley...
A moist warm sector with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s should
reside in vicinity of front beneath modest (6.5-7 C/km) mid-level
lapse rates, and the atmosphere will likely become moderately
unstable as the surface layer warms during the day. Storms may be
ongoing within zone of ascent along/north of the front across a
part of NE, but with new development likely during the afternoon
along the front and residual outflow boundaries as the atmosphere
destabilizes. A belt of modest northwest winds aloft accompanying the
shortwave trough will support 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. A few
organized storms are expected, including potential for some updrafts
to develop mid-level rotation. Isolated large hail and damaging wind
will be possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. Some storms
may eventually congeal into one or more clusters during the evening
with a continued threat for isolated strong to locally damaging
wind gusts.
...Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley regions...
A belt of stronger winds in the 850-700 mb layer is forecast to
accompany the shortwave trough the OH Valley region during the day.
Areas of showers and storms with widespread clouds will likely be
in progress early Thursday within plume of subtropical moisture and
weak cap. However, partial clearing and pockets of heating may occur,
especially south of the warm conveyor belt, and additional storms may
develop during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain weak,
the stronger flow in the 850-500 mb layer may increase the threat
for locally strong to damaging wind gusts with redevelopment of
multicells and line segments during the afternoon.  Other storms
may develop along trailing part of the boundary as far back as
AR and OK. Uncertainty regarding evolution of the thermodynamic
environment precludes more than a marginal risk this update, but
area will continue to be monitored for a possible slight risk.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:     15%     - Slight
..Dial.. 08/15/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...  As an upper-level trough amplifies across the
western CONUS, a mid-level speed max will progress across Wyoming
into the central/northern Plains today. Deep boundary-layer mixing is
expected across portions of southwestern/south-central Wyoming during
the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow will mix to the surface and
promote 15-20 mph winds. With afternoon RH values falling to 5-15%,
elevated fire weather conditions are expected.
Across the Great Basin, northern Sierra Nevada, and into the Harney
Basin of Oregon, mid-level moisture will be present and foster
isolated afternoon thunderstorm development across the higher
terrain. PWAT values will range from 0.5-0.8 in. across the region.
Faster storm motions are expected in Oregon and northern Nevada with
slower speeds in Utah. A mix of wet and dry storms appears likely,
but with very dry fuels in place, lightning ignition efficiency
will be high.
..Wendt.. 08/15/2018
...Please see for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...  The upper-level ridge axis will shift to the
east as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest on
D2/Thursday. At the surface, strong heating across the Columbia
Basin will lead to a thermally induced surface pressure trough
which, with terrain enhancement, will lead to surface winds of
15-20 mph within parts of the Columbia River Gorge. Afternoon RH
values will fall to 10-20%.  With critically dry fuels in place,
elevated fire weather conditions are expected.
Isolated dry thunderstorms will again be possible from the Harney
Basin into much of the Great Basin. PWAT values will be higher than
Wednesday, with values 0.6-1.0 inches. However, with the approach of
the mid-level wave, storm motions will also see an increase leading
to a mix of both wet and dry storms. Due to the very dry fuels
across the region, lightning ignitions will likely be efficient.
..Wendt.. 08/15/2018
...Please see for graphic product...


Put a pot of chili on the stove to simmer.  Let it simmer.  Meanwhile,
broil a good steak.  Eat the steak.  Let the chili simmer.  Ignore it.
		-- Recipe for chili from Allan Shrivers, former governor
		   of Texas.

\\\     Eduardo Castillo  --- ---     \\\
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