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LU9DCE > ALERT    13.02.19 08:15l 135 Lines 7178 Bytes #7 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 02
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 MD 0103 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
 MAINE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019
Areas affected...Much of central into northern Maine and adjacent
portions of northern New Hampshire
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 130421Z - 130715Z
SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour appear
likely to continue to develop across much of central into northern
Maine through 1-4 AM EST.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow appears in the process of
developing across parts of northern New England in response
to increasing lift within entirely sub-freezing and saturating
thermodynamic profiles.  Ascent is largely being supported by
strengthening warm advection, downstream of significant cyclone
which may gradually begin to occlude as it crosses the lower Great
Lakes region.  However, models suggest that large-scale ascent
may become enhanced during the next few hours, aided by lower/mid
tropospheric frontogenetic forcing, including through the mixed-phase
layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal growth.
Into and through the 06-09Z time frame, this appears generally
forecast to become focused across central into northern Maine
(and adjacent portions of northern New Hampshire), where guidance
suggests that sustained hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour are possible.  Forecast soundings also indicate a period of
steepening mid-level lapse rates across this region, which could
become supportive of convection with at least shorter-lived heavier
bursts of snowfall.
..Kerr.. 02/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON   46746908 45606666 44536741 44256927 44527128 45057202
45787148 46747050 46746908
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045
PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Thunderstorms will be possible across the
southern Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but severe weather is
not expected. Isolated lighting strikes may occur across parts of
central California during the day as well.
...Synopsis...  In the wake of a departing northeastern U.S. upper
trough, high pressure will spread across the Southeast, resulting
in dry and stable conditions. The exception in this area will be far
southern Florida, where the tail end of a cold front will exist early
in the day. Here, a moist air mass along with a lower-latitude wave
moving across the Gulf of Mexico will support lift and scattered
showers and thunderstorms. However, severe weather is unlikely as
shear profiles will be weak.
To the west, a shortwave ridge will flatten across CA into the
Great Basin as an upper trough approaches the West Coast overnight.
Tremendous lift via warm advective processes, combined with a high
moisture content aloft will create sufficient instability for heavy
showers and perhaps a few embedded convective elements capable
of lightning.
..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/13/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the
West Coast on Thursday. No severe weather is expected.
...DISCUSSION...  An upper-level trough will move eastward across
the Mississippi Valley on Thursday as an upper-level ridge moves into
the Rockies.  Another upper-level trough will move inland across the
West Coast on Thursday. Strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates ahead of the trough will make isolated thunderstorm development
possible along the coasts of Oregon and northern California. No
severe weather is expected due to weak instability. Thunderstorms
are not forecast elsewhere across the CONUS.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:     <5%
- None Hail:     <5%     - None
..Broyles.. 02/13/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...  A large-scale upper-level ridge over much of the
western/central CONUS will weaken some as an upper trough digs south
out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains. Along the
West Coast, a strong surface low in the Pacific will move towards
southern California and help to amplify the upper ridge over the
Intermountain West. The net effect of these processes will help
to strengthen the mid-level height gradient across the central and
southern Rockies. Strong zonal flow aloft will lead to a deepening
lee trough along portions of the northern/central High Plains.
...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains...  Lee troughing
and at least modest boundary-layer mixing will help to sustain 20-25
mph surface winds across parts of southeast Colorado.  Despite some
high-level clouds muting boundary-layer mixing to some extent,
similar surface winds are expected across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles and northeast New Mexico. A few of these areas will see
afternoon RH dip below 10%, although 10-15% will be most common. A
strong 850 mb jet is forecast to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles during the afternoon. Wind gusts could reach 30+ mph,
but confidence in any sustained winds of this magnitude is low.
Surrounding the highlighted critical region, lighter winds
(15-20 mph) or higher RH (nearing 20% in the eastern portions of
the highlighted region) will support only elevated fire weather
conditions from southeast Colorado farther southward into the Texas
South Plains and southeastern New Mexico. On the Colorado Plateau
of west-central New Mexico, similar elevated conditions are forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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		-- Cecil Beaton

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