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LU9DCE > ALERT    14.08.18 09:15l 141 Lines 7681 Bytes #5 (0) @ WW
BID : 25396_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 08 2018
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<AB0AF<NS2B<KQ0I<LU9DCE
Sent: 180814/0701Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:25396 [TORTUGUITAS] $:25396_LU9DC
From: LU9DCE@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM
To  : ALERT@WW


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+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232
AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WYOMING...SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...  Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
late this afternoon and early this evening across parts of Wyoming,
southeast Montana, far western South Dakota and far western Nebraska.
...Central and Northern Rockies/Central and Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the central and
northern Rockies today. At the surface, upslope flow will be in place
across much of the central and northern High Plains. In response,
a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to
extend from western Nebraska into eastern Wyoming where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface heating
takes place today, MLCAPE values are forecast to reach the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range along the moist corridor. Convection should initiate
in the higher terrain during the afternoon with thunderstorms moving
eastward into the lower elevations late this afternoon into early
this evening. RAP forecast soundings at Sheridan and Casper at
00Z/Wednesday show 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 kt range with 0-3
km lapse rates approaching 9.0 C/km. This should be enough for an
isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts will be possible
with the stronger cells. Steep lapse rates in the mid-levels will
also support a threat for hail.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/14/2018
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...  A few severe storms are possible, mainly over the
central High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong
to severe storms will also be possible over the middle Mississippi
Valley region as well as New England.
...Synopsis...
A rather complex upper pattern will persist through Wednesday with
cutoff low now over the Mid Atlantic transitioning to a progressive
open wave and moving offshore early in the period. The upper low
now over western OK will deamplify as it moves through the mid MS
Valley. Farther west, a shortwave trough is forecast to become
cutoff from belt of stronger westerlies and advance through the
northern High Plains. At the surface a cold front will advance
southeast through New England with trailing portion into NE, where
it will likely stall. A weak surface low accompanied by a surface
trough or weak front will accompany the shortwave trough through
the middle MS Valley region.
...Central High Plains...
East to southeasterly low-level winds will reside in vicinity of
and north of front across northern NE into southern SD, maintaining
influx of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints beneath modest (7-7.5)
mid-level lapse rates. Showers and storms may be ongoing across SD
within zone of ascent north of front and immediately downstream of
the progressive shortwave trough. However, diabatic heating should
promote destabilization of the surface layer south of front with
up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Mid-upper jet within the base of
the trough will contribute to 40-45 kt effective bulk shear across
western NE, and storms are expected to redevelop as the boundary
layer destabilizes during the afternoon. A few supercells capable
of large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats.
Additional storms will probably develop farther south over the
higher terrain of CO and northern NM and spread east into the
High Plains. While vertical shear will be weaker, supporting mostly
multicells, the thermodynamic environment may promote a modest threat
for a isolated large hail and downburst winds through early evening.
...Middle Mississippi Valley region...
Thunderstorms will likely redevelop within the plume of
subtropical moisture accompanying a deamplifying shortwave trough
and convectively enhanced boundaries. Weak lapse rates, areas of
clouds and ongoing precipitation and weak vertical shear should
limit overall severe threat. However, 30-35 kt flow in the 850-500
mb layer accompanying the shortwave trough suggests where diabatic
heating occurs, a few storms could pose a threat for locally strong
wind gusts from afternoon into early evening.
...New England...
At least isolated storms are expected to develop along and ahead of
the shortwave trough and attendant cold front by late afternoon or
early evening. Temperatures are not expected to be overly warm but
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will help foster enough instability
for a few stronger storms capable of mainly isolated strong wind
gusts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:     15%     - Slight
..Dial.. 08/14/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...  An upper-level ridge will again amplify over the
western CONUS today. An area of stronger mid-level flow will be
present across parts of the northern Great Basin as a shortwave
trough passes over the area. Mid-level moisture will increase across
the Great Basin into portions of western Wyoming due to the combined
influx from the remnants of Tropical Storm John and monsoon.
...Snake River Valley into Southwestern Wyoming...  Stronger
mid-level flow will mix to the surface during the afternoon. Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected with surface winds of 15-20
mph and afternoon RH falling to 5-15%.
...Northern Sierra Nevada...Central Great Basin...Western
Wyoming...portion of south-central Montana...  With an influx of
tropical moisture across the region, potential exists for isolated
dry thunderstorms, particularly across central Utah northward
into Wyoming and Montana, where PWAT values of 0.5-0.75 inch will
coincide with storm motions of 35-40 mph. Storm coverage will likely
be greatest across parts of central Nevada, however, storm motions
will be slower in this region leading to an increase in potential
for wetting rainfall. A scattered area will not be introduced for
that region.
..Wendt.. 08/14/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Put a pot of chili on the stove to simmer.  Let it simmer.  Meanwhile,
broil a good steak.  Eat the steak.  Let the chili simmer.  Ignore it.
		-- Recipe for chili from Allan Shrivers, former governor
		   of Texas.

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