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LU9DCE > ALERT    21.06.18 22:15l 411 Lines 22922 Bytes #9 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 06 2018
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 WW 196 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO MS TN 211835Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Thu
Jun 21 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northeast Arkansas
southern Illinois western Kentucky southeast Missouri northern
Mississippi western Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
along a cold front with a few supercells and line segments capable
of mainly damaging wind gusts and some hail through early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Cape Girardeau MO to 30 miles west of Oxford MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 28035.
...Dial
 WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ARG TO
30 NNW CGI.
..PETERS..06/21/18
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-111-121-123-212040-
AR .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY                 CRAIGHEAD           CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE              LAWRENCE LEE                  MISSISSIPPI
POINSETT RANDOLPH             ST. FRANCIS
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-212040-
IL .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER            HARDIN              JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE                PULASKI UNION
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-212040-
KY .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 MD 0811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR
 EASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Areas affected...Far Eastern Alabama...Northern Georgia...and
Western South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211929Z - 212100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
as storms develop and move northeastward.
DISCUSSION...Surface heating south of the expansive cloud shield in
Tennessee and Kentucky has led to moderate destabilization (~1500
J/kg) across eastern Alabama and northern Georgia. Storms developed
in this area ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Unseasonably
strong flow (greater than 40 knots above 3 km via BMX VWP) across
this area has led to some multicell organization of these storms.
Given the continued destabilization of the downstream airmass and
aforementioned stronger flow, expect storms to continue through the
afternoon with isolated stronger cells. Given the weak mid-level
lapse rates (~ 6 C/km via 12Z BMX and FFC RAOB), expect hail threat
to be limited. However, low-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km to
8.0 C/km, per the latest RAP mesoanalysis, may occasionally allow
stronger winds to mix to the surface with isolated damaging winds
possible. In addition, precipitation loading in the updraft, given
the high PWAT airmass (1.75 to 2 inches per BMX and FFC RAOB), may
also increase the chance of wet downbursts. These storms may struggle
as they enter central South Carolina where instability decreases
due to a pocket of lower surface dewpoints, however, there is still
opportunity for this region to destabilize as moisture continues
to advect towards the area through the afternoon and evening.
..Bentley/Dial.. 06/21/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON   34318505 34688481 34868416 35098321 35028276 34948242
34698208 34518174 34358146 34108136 33868131 33678142 33468161
33158253 32928312 32598420 32288608 32718590 33148566 33438537
33918527 34318505
 MD 0810 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PART OF
 NORTHWEST IL AND EASTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0810 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Areas affected...Part of northwest IL and eastern IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211853Z - 212130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon across
part of northwest IL and eastern IA, though the areal coverage and
temporal extent of this severe risk is expected to remain quite low.
A tornado watch is not warranted for this region.
DISCUSSION...Trends in early afternoon mosaic radar imagery,
lightning data and surface observations showed a band of storms
were located along a portion of an occluded front from eastern IA
(Johnson County) to northwest IL (Tazewell County).  These storms
had developed within a marginally unstable environment (MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg).  Additional destabilization is likely in a narrow
corridor (25-40 miles wide) north of the front where satellite
imagery showed mostly clear skies for continued heating of a
moist environment.  Area wind profilers per NWS radars indicated
relatively weak kinematics, though ambient vorticity with the
deep-layer cyclone and some directional shear in vicinity of the
occluded front could favor further low-level rotation for funnels.
Meanwhile, until surface heating decreases, the co-location of
surface vorticity with the occluded front, 0-3 km CAPE of 100 J/kg,
and modest 0-3 km lapse rates suggest a marginal tornado probability.
..Peters/Dial.. 06/21/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON   40658991 41309088 41839167 42069225 42279211 42009102
41609024 41338964 41038913 40838888 40508903 40458958 40658991
 MD 0809 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN
 IL...SOUTHEAST MO...NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN...AND
 NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0809 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Areas affected...Southern IL...southeast MO...northeast AR...western
KY...western TN...and northern MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 211731Z - 212000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
from north to south, with an increasing potential for some of
the storms to become severe producing a damaging wind threat and
possibly hail.  A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered
from parts of southern Illinois southward to northern Mississippi
and northeast Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and lightning data
indicated a couple broken bands of storms have developed from
western IL into southeast MO, with new storm formation underway
across north-central AR.  The western most band of storms was
located along a cold front, while the leading band formed in
vicinity of a differential heating boundary.  Nonetheless, this
activity has developed within a destabilizing/moist boundary-layer
and in an axis of moderate instability.  Additional height falls
attendant to the exit region of a 50+ kt 500-mb jet impinging on
the discussion area this afternoon and evening will further support
sustained thunderstorm development.  The moderate instability and
effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt will aid in storm organization
with damaging winds and hail being the primary severe threats,
as storms spread from west to east.
..Peters/Dial.. 06/21/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON   38038928 38008813 36388757 34888817 34158910 34219026
34819112 35669092 37179012 38038928
 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131
AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...
...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind
will be possible today over a part of the lower Mississippi Valley
and western Tennessee Valley. Storms capable of isolated severe
gusts and hail are possible across parts of the High Plains and
north-central Rockies later this afternoon into the early evening.
Storms producing a few locally strong to damaging gusts are
also possible over the lower Ohio Valley as well as the North
Carolina/Virginia vicinity.
...MO/AR into KY/TN/MS...
Late morning surface analysis indicates an occluded front extending
east from a surface low over southwest IA. This boundary then
transitions to a cold front that stretches across western IL into
south central MO and northwest AR. Partial clearing is occurring
from AR into western TN and southeast MO in wake of morning showers.
Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but diabatic warming of the very
moist boundary layer should boost MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. Storms
should initiate along the cold front from northeast AR into
southeast MO this afternoon and gradually increase in intensity as
they move through the destabilizing warm sector. A 50 kt mid-level
jet max on the southern periphery of the upper low circulation is
moving southeast and will overtake the frontal zone this afternoon,
resulting in up to 45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of a few
rotating updrafts. Some storms may also evolve into broken line
segments with damaging wind expected to be the main threat. Despite
weak mid-level lapse rates, a few instances of hail are also
possible, especially given possibility of left splits and potential
contribution of pressure perturbations to updraft strength. Though
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, low-level hodographs are
relatively small which should temper overall tornado threat.
...Northern Rockies and High Plains...
A pronounced shortwave trough is moving across ID late this morning,
and will continue through the northern Rockies this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over much of this
region, with development also across eastern WY and southward into
northeast CO this evening.  Forecast soundings suggest modest CAPE
in most areas, but sufficient vertical shear to promote the risk
of a few rotating storms. Isolated large hail and locally damaging
wind gusts will be possible in the strongest cells. It remains
uncertain where coverage of severe events will be sufficient for
a categorical upgrade, so will maintain marginal risk this update.
...IA/IL...
An upper low centered over southern IA will track southeastward into
eastern MO today.  Strong convergence is occurring along an occluded
boundary wrapping westward into IA.  Given the ambient vorticity
under the upper low, and proximity to the surface low/boundaries,
an isolated non-supercell tornado or two is not out of the question
in this zone. However, overall setup does not appear as favorable
as yesterday.
...VA/NC...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher
terrain of western VA/NC as well as in warm sector this afternoon
and track eastward across the MRGL risk area.  Ample low level
moisture is present, along with the potential for strong heating
and MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible, although weak mid-level lapse rates may temper
the overall severe risk.
...NM to TX Panhandle...
A few strong thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon
off the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa, spreading southeastward
toward the TX Panhandle this evening.  A few instances of large
hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. It
still appears the coverage of storms will remain very isolated,
so will maintain the MRGL risk category this update.
..Dial/Bentley.. 06/21/2018
 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...  Scattered severe storms will be possible across
parts of the central/southern Plains and southeast US on Friday.
...Central/Southern Plains...  Initial mid-level ridging over the
High Plains will yield to an upstream trough, characterized by
several embedded impulses, which will overspread the region during
peak heating. Broad forcing for ascent will support a deepening
surface low over the southern High Plains, with increasing upslope
flow over Colorado and surface convergence southward into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Surface dew points rising into the
50s/lower 60s and strong heating (once low-level cloud cover
dissipates) should support at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with
much of this buoyancy residing in the favored -10 to -30 C zone for
hail growth. Combined with ample veering of flow with height, this
thermodynamic environment will be supportive of initial supercells
capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
or two.
Through the evening hours, an amplifying low-level jet will likely
foster upscale growth into one or more east/southeastward-moving
convective systems, with damaging winds becoming the primary threat.
Although surface-based inhibition will rise given nocturnal cooling,
residual steep mid-level lapse rates and dry air aloft may allow a
mature convective system (characterized by a well-established cold
pool) to make farther eastward progress than would be expected
of individual cells alone. As such, continued adjustments to the
outlook will likely be needed.
...Southeast US to the Ohio Valley...  500mb flow will be anomalously
strong over much of the Southeast Friday (based on sounding climo
for various sites), such that pockets of storms will exhibit more
organization than what would be otherwise expected for mid/late June
here. Still, the potential for early-day convection and related cloud
cover/overturning/outflow lends considerable spatial uncertainty
with regards to destabilization and convective initiation during
peak heating.  Across the lower Mississippi Valley, strong storms
may be ongoing Friday morning, given a lobe of ascent dropping
southeast along the periphery of a closed low centered over the
Midwest. To the west/southwest of these storms, heating through
the day should yield at least moderate instability. However,
increasing subsidence aloft and southward-advancing outflow may:
(a) Decouple new development from stronger flow aloft and (b) Cause
cells to become elevated atop outflow relatively quickly. Still,
a conditional threat will exist for large hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado or two, and no change is made to the ongoing
slight risk here.
Farther east, downstream cloud cover from the aforementioned
convection may slow destabilization over parts of Mississippi and
Alabama, and a relative minimum in storm coverage may be realized
in some areas. Nonetheless, where heating does occur, enhanced
unidirectional flow will likely encourage small linear segments
with an attendant damaging wind threat, as they move east during the
afternoon and evening. An embedded tornado or two may be possible as
well. This risk should extend farther northeast towards Kentucky and
Virginia, and the marginal risk has been expanded accordingly. Some
of these areas may require an upgrade to slight risk, pending greater
confidence in the focus of destabilization and convective coverage.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   5%     - Slight Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:     15% SIG - Slight
..Picca.. 06/21/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
A small eastward expansion has been made to the ongoing elevated
area across parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and central
Rockies vicinity. Locally critical conditions will be possible for
parts of southern/eastern UT and northwestern CO, where sustained
winds may exceed 20 mph in conjunction with RH values of 7-15%
on a brief/isolated basis. Critical meteorological conditions
appear likely across parts of southwestern WY this afternoon, but
fuels remain unreceptive to large fire starts across this region,
precluding any highlights.
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon across far
northeastern UT into northwestern CO as the glancing influence
of large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over the
northern Great Basin/Rockies overspreads this region. Given a
generally well-mixed/dry boundary layer, fast storm motions, and
total precipitable water values around 0.50, these thunderstorms
will likely produce little, if any, wetting rainfall. Confidence in
these thunderstorms initiating later this afternoon over the Uinta
Mountains in northeastern UT and subsequently spreading eastward
into northwestern CO has increased enough to introduce an isolated
dry thunderstorm area with this update. See the previous discussion
below for more information.
..Gleason.. 06/21/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/
...Synopsis...  A mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the
Great Basin atop a well-mixed boundary layer. Relatively stronger
winds aloft associated with the aforementioned shortwave will mix
down to the surface across much of the area.
Large scale ascent associated with the leading edge of the shortwave
may also initiate isolated, weak convection along the crest of the
ridge across the higher terrain of the Central Rockies.
...Central Great Basin...  Downslope flow/mixing east of the
northern Sierras may produce sustained winds of up to 15-20 mph in
portions of western Nevada where critically low RH will likely be
present, particularly during peak heating. Similarly, deep mixing
of stronger winds aloft down to the surface is also expected across
much of the Great Basin, including portions of northwest Arizona,
with sustained 15-20 mph surface winds possible during the mid-late
afternoon. Critically low RH is also forecast to coincide across much
of the Great Basin where stronger surface winds are expected. Given
the modest availability of fuels and lack of widespread stronger
surface winds, much of the Great Basin was delineated with an
elevated criterion, though localized critical fire weather conditions
may be possible anywhere within the elevated delineation.
...Central Rockies...  Glancing upper level support associated with
the leading edge of the mid-level shortwave combined with upslope
flow along the higher terrain may result in isolated thunderstorms
from far northeast Utah to central New Mexico as indicated by recent
high resolution model guidance. PW values between 0.5-1.0 inches,
MUCAPE values of up to 100 J/kg within the -10 to -30 C layer,
and modest mid-level flow in these areas suggest that isolated
dry thunderstorms can not be out ruled. Given that there is still
some disagreement among model solutions regarding the evolution
of convection in the Central Rockies, an isolated dry thunderstorm
delineation was not issued.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO...
The critical area for Day 2/Friday has been expanded westward
to include more of northern NM and southern CO based on
latest short-term model guidance. Confidence remains high that
west-northwesterly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap lowered RH values
around 5-15% for multiple hours Friday afternoon across these areas.
Stronger gusts to 35-40 mph will be possible mainly across higher
terrain. Some uncertainty remains regarding the eastward extent
of elevated/critical conditions across the southern/central High
Plains, as wetting rainfall potential becomes increasingly likely
across southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles. See the previous
discussion below for more information.
..Gleason.. 06/21/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/
...Synopsis...  An upper-level ridge that had been present across the
Southwest will be replaced by a broad northwesterly flow regime. A
well mixed boundary layer will also be present across much of the
Four corners region.
...Four Corners region into the southern High Plains...  Strong
winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface within a
deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Four Corners and
southern Rockies. Widespread surface winds of at least 15-20 mph
are expected, along with RH values well below critical thresholds.
While widespread elevated to isolated critical fire weather
conditions may be present for much of the Four Corners/southern
Rockies area into the western Texas Panhandle, portions of northeast
New Mexico into south-central Colorado will likely experience the
greatest overlap of critical conditions. Here, winds are expected to
be sustained in the 20-25 mph range for much of the late afternoon
hours, with critical RH values well below 10 percent.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Weekends were made for programming.
		-- Karl Lehenbauer

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