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LU9DCE > ALERT    23.02.19 08:15l 158 Lines 8805 Bytes #2 (0) @ WW
BID : 18877_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 02
Sent: 190223/0701Z 18877@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122
PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...SUMMARY...  Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
today from the Arklatex region and lower to mid Mississippi Valley
eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes, wind damage
and isolated large hail will be possible across much of the area.
...Significant tornado and wind damage event expected across parts
of the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today...
...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys...  A well organized negatively-tilted upper-level trough
will move across the southern Plains today as a 90 to 100 kt
mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface,
a low will gradually deepen and move northeastward across the central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. A surface trough is forecast
to extend southward into the lower Mississippi Valley with a moist
airmass located across the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper
60s and lower 70s F will overspread northern Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas and most of Mississippi by midday. At the start of the
period, a cluster of thunderstorms should be ongoing from northern
Mississippi into western and middle Tennessee. The stronger storms
embedded in the cluster may have an isolated severe threat. This
activity is forecast to move northeastward away the moderate risk
area allowing for the moist sector to warm up late this morning. In
response, a corridor of moderate instability is expected to be in
place by midday from northeast Louisiana into far southeast Arkansas
and western Tennessee. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
southern Plains upper-level trough, thunderstorms are forecast to
develop during the morning along the surface trough in the Arklatex
with this convection moving northeastward into southeastern Arkansas
by midday. More isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the
moist sector from northern Louisiana into north-central Mississippi.
During the early to mid afternoon, convective coverage should
increase with scattered thunderstorms moving east-northeastward
across the Enhanced and Moderate Risk areas.
RAP forecast soundings across the Moderate Risk area from
north-central Mississippi into southwest Tennessee at 21Z show
moderate instability and impressive kinematic profiles. MLCAPE
is forecast to be from 1000 to 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in
the 50 to 55 kt range. This will support supercell formation with
cells that remain discrete. In addition, hodographs are long and
looped with 0-3 km storm relative helicity values in the 350 to 450
m2/s2 range.  This low-level shear environment will be favorable
for tornadoes. A potential for long-track significant tornadoes
will exist across the Moderate Risk area from late this morning
through much of the afternoon. Wind damage and isolated large
hail will also be possible with supercells. A squall-line is also
expected to develop and move across the Enhanced and Moderate risk
areas during the late afternoon and early evening. Wind damage,
isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will also be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms embedded in the line. This squall-line
with wind damage potential should move across middle Tennessee and
north-central Alabama during the evening.
Further north across the Ohio Valley, scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to move northeastward into western Kentucky and southern
Indiana during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for Paducah
show MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 65 kt. This combined
with strong low-level shear will be sufficient for severe storms
capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage. Most of the severe
convection should remain south of the Ohio River. Due to the weaker
instability in the Ohio Valley, severe coverage is expected to
be less.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 02/23/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144
PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...SUMMARY...  A few strong storms may occur Sunday morning along
a cold front across portions of the Southeast.
Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes region early in the period as a 110kt+
500mb speed max translates across the OH Valley. Associated surface
front will progress to a position from OH - southern Appalachians -
FL Panhandle at 24/12z. Remnants of organized deep convection that
materializes during the day1 period is expected to advance across
the northern Gulf States during the overnight hours. This activity
will slowly weaken as frontal convection encounters less favorable
thermodynamic environment along southern fringe of large-scale
forcing for ascent. Latest short-range guidance and HREF data support
a gradual weakening, likely due to weakening frontal convergence as
upper trough ejects well north of this region.  Forecast soundings
ahead of the wind shift exhibit MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg
with only modest mid-level lapse rates. Latest thinking is broken
squall line should advance across eastern AL/northwest GA  into
the MRGL risk area with some attendant wind threat. This activity
is expected to continue weakening as the front progresses across GA.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:      5%
- Marginal Hail:     <5%     - None
..Darrow.. 02/23/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...  A strong surface low across the Texas panhandle
Saturday morning will deepen and quickly move northeast through the
day. The combination of the increasing surface pressure gradient and
deep mixing with strong mid-level winds will lead to 25 to 30 mph
sustained surface winds across much of West Texas. South of the cold
front, which is expected to be somewhere just south of the Red River
Saturday afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be in the
8 to 15 percent range. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions
are expected across a large portion of West Texas Saturday afternoon.
The duration of these critical conditions may be somewhat limited as
surface winds weaken considerably during the late afternoon as the
surface low and mid-level jet move northeast. However, the duration
is expected to be long enough, and the wind speeds are expected to
be strong enough to warrant a critical fire weather delineation.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2019
...Please see for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...  Cool and wet fuels will limit overall fire weather
risk across the CONUS on Sunday. Dry conditions are expected across
portions of the southern High Plains, but winds are expected to
be mostly light.  There is potential for 10 to 15 mph winds in
addition to 12 to 15 percent relative humidities in eastern New
Mexico and the western Texas panhandle, but ongoing precipitation
across this area will likely limit fuel receptiveness. Therefore,
no areas have been drawn for this outlook.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2019
...Please see for graphic product...


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