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LU9DCE > ALERT    24.06.19 09:15l 282 Lines 15084 Bytes #7 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 06
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 WW 438 SEVERE TSTM TX 240235Z - 240900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Sun
Jun 23 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of central Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 935 PM until
400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms may intensify
and organize further late this evening into the overnight hours.
As it does, it is expected to pose a continuing risk for severe
wind gusts while advancing southeastward and southward across much
of central Texas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of Stephenville TX to 35 miles south southeast of Tyler
TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30035.
...Kerr
 WW 0438 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BWD TO
25 ENE BWD TO 35 SSW SEP TO 35 WNW ACT TO 30 NNW ACT TO 35 N ACT
TO 10 WNW CRS TO 25 E CRS TO 35 SSW GGG.
..LEITMAN..06/24/19
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SJT...EWX...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-027-035-041-049-051-053-093-099-145-161-185-193-217-225-
281-287-289-293-299-309-313-331-333-349-395-411-455-471-491- 240540-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON             BELL                BOSQUE BRAZOS
BROWN               BURLESON BURNET               COMANCHE
CORYELL FALLS                FREESTONE           GRIMES HAMILTON
HILL                HOUSTON LAMPASAS             LEE
LEON LIMESTONE            LLANO               MCLENNAN MADISON
MILAM               MILLS NAVARRO              ROBERTSON
SAN SABA TRINITY              WALKER              WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT TO
30 E ABI TO 15 ENE MWL TO 35 NNW FTW TO 35 NNW DAL TO 40 SE GYI TO
25 SSW PRX TO 40 SE PRX.
..LEITMAN..06/24/19
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SJT...FWD...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-083-085-093-113-121-133-143-221-223-231-257-363-367-
379-397-399-439-467-497-240340-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN                CALLAHAN            COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE            DALLAS DENTON               EASTLAND
ERATH HOOD                 HOPKINS             HUNT KAUFMAN
PALO PINTO          PARKER RAINS                ROCKWALL
RUNNELS TARRANT              VAN ZANDT           WISE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 MD 1228 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438... FOR
 CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Areas affected...Central/East-Central TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...
Valid 240632Z - 240800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across
central and east-central TX.
DISCUSSION...Convective line arcing from north-central LA into
central TX continues to push eastward/southeastward at around 25 kt.
Some increased forward progression has been noted in the past hour
near the inflection point within the line over central TX. More
backbuilding has also become evident along the far western portion
of the line over the TX Hill Country.
Over the last hour, wind gusts along the leading edge of the cold
pool have only been around 25 kt. The strongest updrafts remain
along the western, backbuilding portion of the line from Lampasas
County into McLennan County. Highest severe threat currently exists
in this area (and immediately downstream), where water loading
within the strong updrafts could result in damaging downburst winds.
..Mosier.. 06/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON   31499848 31979772 32169696 32189630 32089570 31809531
30919522 30599595 30519750 30579875 31499848
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...  Scattered storms, some severe with hail or wind,
are expected today the southern Great Lakes southward across the
Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Other severe
storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians...  An upper-level
trough will move eastward across the Mississippi Valley today
as southwest mid-level flow remains over east-central U.S. At
the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys as a corridor of maximized low-level moisture sets
up ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F should
result in moderate instability by midday across much of the moist
sector. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence
increases along the front, scattered convection is forecast to
initiate along and ahead of the front. Linear MCS development will
be possible as storms increase in coverage and move northeastward
across the moist sector during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings
ahead of the front by 21Z from northern Kentucky southward into
the southern Appalachian Mountains show MLCAPE values from 1000
to 2000 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. This along about 30
kt of 0-6 km shear should be favorable for isolated damaging wind
gusts. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded
in the any line that becomes established.
...Southern Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley...  An upper-level
trough will move across the upper Mississippi Valley today as a cold
front advances eastward into the region. Surface dewpoints in the mid
60s F ahead of the front should contribute to the development of a
pocket of moderate instability by afternoon from southern Wisconsin
into northern Illinois. Scattered cells are forecast to initiate
along and ahead of the front in the vicinity of the upper-level
trough around midday. Many of the cells should become thunderstorms,
moving eastward across southern Wisconsin and northeastern Illinois
during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates associated with the trough
and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for isolated
supercell formation and a large-hail threat.  A few damaging wind
gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. The greatest
severe threat should occur near peak heating.
...Southern Plains...  Westerly to west-northwesterly mid-level
flow will be in place today from the southern Rockies into the
southern Plains. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture should set up across west-central Texas. This will likely
contribute to a corridor of moderate to strong instability by
afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate along the instability
axis during the mid to late afternoon, although warm temperatures
aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm
activity isolated. However, the instability combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates and 30 kt of deep-layer shear should be
sufficient for supercell development.  Large hail and wind damage
will be possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening
as the storms mature and move eastward across west-central Texas.
..Broyles/Cook.. 06/24/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...  At least isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail
and wind are possible from the southern High Plains northeastward
into Iowa and Illinois, as well as across the Arklatex.
...Synopsis...  A shortwave trough will eject northeast from the
Great Lakes into Canada with weakly rising heights across the
Plains. Meanwhile, an upper low will drop south along the coastal
Pacific Northwest, resulting in shortwave ridging over the northern
Rockies.
At the surface, high pressure will be situated over Deep South,
with southerly winds across the Plains. Here, a weak trough will
develop from the NM/TX border toward southern NE and IA, with a
moist and unstable air mass to the east. This zone will support
isolated cells or small clusters of storms, capable of wind or hail
during the afternoon and evening.
...NM/TX border northeastward into IA and IL...  Despite the
height rises, cool midlevel temperatures (-10 to -12 C) will remain
over the central states. Heating will then result in steep lapse
rates, with widespread 60s to low 70s F dewpoints contributing to
an extensive area of strong instability. MUCAPE in excess of 3000
J/kg is possible from west TX into IA, with higher values across OK,
KS, and western MO.
Strong heating will occur near the surface trough, with little if any
CIN. Storms are likely to form by 21Z with slow-moving cells across
TX, OK, and KS. Some of these storms may become small clusters with
accelerating outflows late in the day.
Farther north, winds aloft will be stronger from NE into IL and may
better support an organized severe threat with an MCS. Initiation
appears most likely on the nose of the low-level jet after 21Z over
NE/KS, developing across MO, IA, and into IL during the evening.
Hail is also possible with strong instability and cool temperatures
aloft.
...Arklatex and southeast OK...  Several models including the
NAM and ECMWF suggest an early day MCS affecting southeast OK,
developing toward the Arklatex. This is a plausible scenario given
ample moisture, instability, and sufficient lift via low-level warm
advection. Another possible instigator may be antecedent outflow
boundaries, which are difficult to forecast.  Thus, low severe
probabilities appear justified mainly for strong wind gusts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Jewell.. 06/24/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...  A mid-level wave over the central Plains will
eject toward the western Great Lakes throughout the forecast period,
resulting in quasi-zonal flow aloft from northern California eastward
to the central Plains.  Some of this stronger flow will occur atop
a dry, deeply mixed low-level airmass over Nevada, resulting in
areas of elevated fire weather.
...Northwestern Nevada...  Models (GFS and to a lesser extent RAP)
continue to indicate at least a few localized areas of 20+ mph
westerly surface winds developing in the lee of the Sierras during
the afternoon and early evening.  This flow will occur as RH values
fall to around 5-15%.  The extent of fire weather conditions will
be mitigated by marginal dryness of fuels, with only finer fuels
supporting fire spread in the region.  Nevertheless, atmospheric
conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds,
and an attendant delineation remains in place.
..Cook.. 06/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...  Flow aloft over the western third of the CONUS
will back to more southwesterly and strengthen some in response to
a deepening mid-level low just off the Washington/Oregon coast.
Once again, dry low-level conditions will exist across portions
of the Great Basin, which will result in elevated fire weather
conditions in a few areas.
...Northwestern Nevada...  Strong flow aloft and vertical mixing
will once again result in areas of 20-30 mph west-southwesterly
surface winds during peak heating hours.  Critically low (5-15%)
RH will also develop across the region in response to insolation
within a dry airmass across the region.  Fuels remain marginal for
fire weather spread given the wet spring and overall slow start to
the fire weather season.  In response, an elevated fire delineation
remains in place.
...Lower Colorado River Valley...  Strengthening mid-level flow will
encourage areas of 15-25 mph southerly flow across the region during
the afternoon amidst critically low RH values (5-15%).  Meanwhile,
fuels are slightly drier (and ERCs higher) especially from far
southern Nevada southward into southwestern Arizona.  Stronger flow
will be displaced from the drier fuels, however.  Though locally
critical fire weather conditions may occur across the region, the
overall fire weather scenario is consistent with elevated criteria,
and an attendant delineation is in place for this outlook.
..Cook.. 06/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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