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LU9DCE > ALERT    16.01.19 08:15l 105 Lines 5505 Bytes #8 (0) @ WW
BID : 16660_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 01
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<
      LU9DCE
Sent: 190116/0700Z 16660@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17

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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday
across parts of northern and central California. Gusty winds may
accompany this activity.
...CA...
00z short-range model guidance is in general agreement that a strong
short-wave trough will approach the northern CA coast by 17/06z
with substantial height falls expected to spread inland during
the overnight hours. Large-scale forcing for ascent will likely
encourage weak elevated convection ahead of the front during the
early evening but this activity should struggle to attain heights
necessary for lightning. However, significant mid-level cooling
will aid destabilization as lapse rates steepen just ahead of
a pronounced surface front that should move onshore around 06z.
Forecast soundings along the northern CA coast suggest near-surface
based buoyancy will evolve along the front which will likely result
in one or more strongly-forced bands of convection. Very strong
southwesterly flow is forecast just off the surface and there is
some concern strong winds may mix to the surface with the frontal
convection. NAM forecast sounding at SFO at 17/06z exhibits SBCAPE
on the order of 300 J/kg with 50kt southwesterly flow at 1k feet
AGL. At this time will not introduce MRGL for gusty winds but if
sufficient instability can materialize a few strong storms may be
possible with the frontal convection.
..Darrow/Leitman.. 01/16/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of
California into the Great Basin on Thursday. Severe weather is
unlikely.
...Synopsis...  A shortwave trough will dig southeastward toward
the Great Basin with substantial cooling aloft and lift resulting in
widespread precipitation. Minimal instability will exist across CA
during the day and developing into the Great Basin, due to steepening
lapse rates aloft. Sporadic lightning strikes will be possible from
CA into NV and UT as a cold front progresses eastward. A few strong
wind gusts may occur as a result of downward mixing of strong winds
aloft, but severe weather is unlikely.
Elsewhere, a fast moving shortwave trough will move east from the
Mid MS Valley early in the day to the Mid Atlantic coast by late
evening. Cold air aloft may support minimum elevated instability
across KY and TN, but the overall thunderstorm threat is quite low.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:     <5%
- None Hail:     <5%     - None
..Jewell.. 01/16/2019
 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222
AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated strong storms are possible Friday evening
and overnight across parts of Texas. Hail will be the primary threat.
...Synopsis...  A shortwave trough will develop southeastward across
the Four Corners states and into the Southern Plains with 50-65 kt
midlevel southwesterly winds and cooling aloft overspreading much
of Texas.  At the surface, low pressure will translate southeastward
across Texas as a cold front surges southward across the High
Plains. To the east of the cold front, southerly winds will aid
in the northward transport of low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in
destabilization and scattered thunderstorms.
To the west, cold air aloft early in the day may support isolated
lightning strikes across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but storm
activity will not be severe.
...Central/Northern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma...  Moisture
advection will occur across the warm sector in Texas through
the period, with initial rain showers and a few weak elevated
thunderstorms possibly as early as late afternoon. More substantial
lift will occur during the evening as warm advection increases,
and overnight along the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate
little surface based CAPE due to a cool boundary layer initially,
but cool temperatures aloft as well as lengthening hodographs will
favor hail. The most concentrated area of storms producing hail is
forecast to be over north Texas and perhaps across the Red River
into Oklahoma and/or ArkLaTex. While surface based instability will
increase into Saturday morning, chances of wind damage appear low
at this time.
..Jewell.. 01/16/2019

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