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W7EES  > SWPC     17.06.19 03:30l 57 Lines 2122 Bytes #2 (0) @ WW
BID : 9506_W7EES
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Sent: 190617/0027Z 9506@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18

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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 415 km/s at 16/1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18
Jun, 19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 066
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  010/012-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25

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