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W7EES  > SWPC     01.12.18 00:45l 45 Lines 1533 Bytes #2 (0) @ WW
BID : 6178_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<CX2SA<N9PMO<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181130/2312Z 6178@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 30/0153Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 068
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  019/024-021/028-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/25
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/70/40



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