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LU9DCE > ALERT    08.02.19 08:45l 112 Lines 5984 Bytes #2 (0) @ WW
BID : 18249_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 02
Sent: 190208/0700Z 18249@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.18

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108
PM CST Thu Feb 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...SUMMARY...  The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible
across the U.S.  today through tonight.
...Synopsis...  Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge
may become more prominent within the mid-latitude westerlies
over the northeastern Pacific during this period.  As it does, a
vigorous downstream short wave impulse is forecast to dig to the
south/southwest of the Canadian Rockies, and support significant
lower/mid tropospheric cyclogenesis near or just west of the Pacific
Northwest coast by 12Z Saturday.  At the same time, a weaker cyclone
(currently about 400 miles west of Eureka, CA) is forecast to dig
toward the central California coast, before weakening further
while turning inland to the southwest of San Francisco Bay by
early Saturday.
Farther downstream, large-scale ridging appears likely to build
within the mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies across much of
the interior U.S., in the wake of a deep upper trough and embedded
cyclone forecast to redevelop eastward across Quebec and the Canadian
Maritimes.  While a sharp cold front trailing the cyclone advances
east of much of the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears likely to stall
over the northwestern/western Gulf of Mexico, beneath fairly strong
and persistent mid-level subtropical ridging.
Models suggest that strong low-level cooling and drying in the
wake of the cold front will result in, or contribute to the
maintenance of, generally stable conditions with negligible risk
for thunderstorms across most areas east of the Rockies.
Meanwhile, it appears that the evolving pattern will not allow for
appreciable modification of prevailing cool and stable conditions
across much of the West, particularly given the lack of low/mid-level
moisture return from the subtropical Pacific.
...Pacific Coast...  While thunderstorm probabilities appear
generally low, guidance suggests that mid-level cooling and forcing
for ascent may contribute to marginally favorable thermodynamic
profiles for isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity
across the coast and coastal ranges, south of San Francisco Bay
through the Santa Barbara County vicinity, by this evening.
Weak destabilization could also become supportive of additional
thunderstorm activity in association with the evolving system near
the Pacific Northwest coast tonight, but probabilities exceeding
the 10 percent threshold may remain offshore.
...Texas...  Model output does suggest that mid-level moistening,
associated with the progression of one or more perturbations within
the subtropical westerlies, could contribute to the development of
weak elevated conditional instability (based around 700 mb) across
the lower Rio Grande Valley into parts of the Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country.  It might not be out of the question that this could
be accompanied by convection capable of producing some lightning,
perhaps as early as this morning.  However, the extent of this
potential remains unclear, and thunderstorm probabilities are being
maintained at less than 10 percent, at least for now.
..Kerr/Wendt.. 02/08/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134
PM CST Thu Feb 07 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
West Coast on Saturday but no severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...  An upper-level low is forecast to move southward
along with Pacific Northwest Coast on Saturday. Cold air aloft,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong large-scale ascent
associated with the upper-level low may be enough for isolated
thunderstorm development on Saturday along the coasts of Oregon and
northern California. Instability should be too weak for a severe
threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, thunderstorm development is
not expected Saturday or Saturday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:     <5%
- None Hail:     <5%     - None
..Broyles.. 02/08/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Thu Feb 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...  A potent surface low will depart the Great Lakes
region into Ontario today. A strong surface anticyclone will push
into the northern tier of the CONUS, bringing arctic air to much
of areas east of the Rockies. Along the West Coast, two shortwaves
will impact portions of central/southern California and the Pacific
Northwest, respectively.  Between precipitation along the West
Coast and cold temperatures/elevated RH east of the Divide, fire
weather concerns will be minimal.
..Wendt.. 02/08/2019
...Please see for graphic product...


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