CX2SA > SWPC 18.08.18 00:30l 60 Lines 2163 Bytes #7 (0) @ WW
BID : 50891_CX2SA
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Sent: 180817/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50891 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50891_CX2SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 17/1933Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (20 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 067
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/008-006/005-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/50
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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