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W7EES  > SWPC     25.06.19 04:15l 48 Lines 1944 Bytes #9 (0) @ WW
BID : 9703_W7EES
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Sent: 190625/0152Z 9703@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.18

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 356 km/s at 24/1652Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 068
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  009/012-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/20

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