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LU9DCE > ALERT    18.01.19 08:15l 111 Lines 6249 Bytes #10 (0) @ WW
BID : 16806_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 01
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190118/0700Z 16806@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17

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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF EAST TX/OK INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing mainly large hail may occur from parts of east Texas and
Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex late this afternoon into tonight. Strong to
locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado may occur overnight into
early Saturday morning from east Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.
...Synopsis...  An amplifying upper trough will eject eastward
from the Rockies across the central and southern Plains today. A
50-80+ kt mid-level southwesterly jet will overspread parts of the
southern Plains to the lower MS Valley beginning this afternoon and
continuing through tonight. A surface low initially over the central
High Plains is forecast to develop southeastward to the OK/TX border
vicinity by this evening, and then continue developing eastward
across the lower MS Valley through the remainder of the period.
...East TX/ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...  Low-level moisture
transport will occur ahead of the upper trough and surface low
through the day across parts of central/east TX.  With a prior
frontal passage having shunted richer moisture southward over
the Gulf of Mexico, recovery of the low-level airmass across this
region will likely be delayed until at least late this afternoon
when sufficient low-level moisture can be transported far enough
northward to support convective initiation. Forecast soundings across
east TX and the ArkLaTex region suggest this initial activity will
likely be slightly elevated, with MUCAPE of generally 500-1250
J/kg. Long, straight hodographs, effective bulk shear of 40-50
kt supporting mid-level storm rotation, and steepening mid-level
lapse rates with the approach of the upper trough all suggest that
isolated large hail should be the primary threat with these elevated
thunderstorms. The hail threat across eastern OK and western/central
AR should be constrained by decreasing moisture/instability with
northward extent, even through strong forcing for ascent and cold
mid-level temperatures ahead of the upper trough will be present.
Greater thunderstorm coverage should eventually occur from late this
evening into tonight across east TX and LA along an eastward-moving
cold front that will extend southward from the surface low. Even
though surface dewpoints will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower
60s, strong low-level warm and moist air advection will occur ahead
of the front across the lower MS Valley overnight owing to a 40-55
kt southwesterly low-level jet. While low-level lapse rates will
be weak, forecast soundings from most short-term guidance show some
potential for surface-based thunderstorms across this region, mainly
in the 06-12Z time frame. Given the strength of the low-level flow,
strong to locally damaging winds could occur with a consolidating
line of thunderstorms, and plentiful low-level shear may support
an embedded tornado or two as well. The lack of greater low-level
moisture across the warm sector limits confidence in any more than
Marginal risk probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Dean.. 01/18/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...  Scattered storms, some severe, are expected across
parts of the Gulf Coast states on Saturday with damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two.
...Synopsis...  A potent shortwave trough will continue east out of
TX and into the Lower MS Valley during the day with low pressure
moving from eastern AR across KY and TN. A cold front will trail
southward from the low, progressing across MS and AL during the day
and into northwest GA by 00Z. Southerly surface winds will allow
low 60s F dewpoints to return north, with strong veering winds with
height favoring severe storms despite marginal instability.
Overnight, the surface low will move off the Delmarva with the cold
front affecting eastern NC into Sunday morning. Here, instability
for strong or severe storms is forecast to remain mostly offshore.
...Southeast LA...MS...AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA...  Ongoing
storms across the Lower MS Valley Saturday morning are forecast
to consolidate along the cold front into central MS by 18Z, and
continue eastward into AL through afternoon. Large looping hodographs
combined with sufficient instability will favor line segments,
possibly QLCS in nature, or perhaps a supercell or two capable of a
brief tornado. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat across
the Slight Risk area with 850 mb winds of 50-60 kt. By evening,
as the front progresses into GA, the risk is expected to wane as
instability becomes less, and large-scale lift shifts northeast of
the area. Still, a few damaging wind gusts may occur into GA.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   5%     - Slight Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Jewell.. 01/18/2019

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

	During a grouse hunt in North Carolina two intrepid sportsmen
were blasting away at a clump of trees near a stone wall.  Suddenly a
red-faced country squire popped his head over the wall and shouted, "Hey,
you almost hit my wife."
	"Did I?"  cried the hunter, aghast.  "Terribly sorry.  Have a
shot at mine, over there."

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