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LU9DCE > ALERT    10.06.19 09:15l 247 Lines 12581 Bytes #2 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 06
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 WW 351 SEVERE TSTM TX 100135Z - 100700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 835 PM CDT Sun
Jun 9 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 835 PM until
200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Long-lived MCS with embedded supercells across
south-central Texas will push southward across south into perhaps
Deep South Texas tonight. While overall severe threat should
gradually diminish, the risk for mainly severe wind gusts should
persist for several hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of
Hondo TX to 40 miles south southeast of Laredo TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 01035.
...Grams
 WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW HDO TO
35 S LRD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046.
..GRAMS..06/10/19
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...BRO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC127-271-323-463-479-507-100540-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIMMIT               KINNEY              MAVERICK UVALDE
WEBB                ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUS TO
40 NNE VCT TO 10 NNE PSX.
..LEITMAN..06/10/19
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC123-177-255-285-493-100340-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEWITT               GONZALES            KARNES LAVACA
WILSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE 6R6 TO
30 SE JCT TO 20 NW SAT TO 25 ESE SAT.
..LEITMAN..06/10/19
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC029-137-265-271-465-100300-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEXAR                EDWARDS             KERR KINNEY
VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  A few storms may produce small hail over parts of the
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon. General thunderstorms
are likely over much of the East, with a few strong wind gusts
possible across portions of the Mid Atlantic and vicinity.
...Eastern OH into WV and Western PA/MD...  Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period
across parts of the OH Valley along and just ahead of a surface
cold front. This front will move eastward across the Mid Atlantic
and NY today in tandem with a lead shortwave trough. Thunderstorms
may increase in coverage along the front in eastern OH by early
afternoon as modest diurnal heating occurs.  Stronger mid-level
flow will lag to the west of the front. Forecast soundings across
eastern OH into northern WV and western PA show very weak mid-level
lapse rates, which should limit instability to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
or less. Coupled with effective bulk shear values generally less
than 25 kt, the potential for thunderstorms to become organized
along the front currently appears low. But, a strong wind gust or
two cannot be totally ruled out.
...Eastern VA/MD/DE/Eastern PA/NJ...  A warm front is forecast
to lift northward across this region this afternoon and evening,
and a moist low-level airmass characterized by low 70s dewpoints
will become common across the warm sector. Weak destabilization is
forecast to occur along and south of the warm front, and MLCAPE may
approach 1000 J/kg by peak afternoon heating.  Some low-level veering
of winds will occur near the northward-moving warm front through the
day. Weakly rotating, low-topped showers/storms may occur in this
regime, but the lack of stronger low-level flow (850 winds forecast
to be no more than 15-20 kt), weak mid-level lapse rates, and weak
deep-layer shear should temper updraft strength/organization. The
potential for organized severe thunderstorms appears too
limited/conditional to include any severe probabilities at this time.
...Dakotas into Western MN...  Cold mid-level temperatures will
remain over much of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as
a large-scale upper trough moves eastward to the Great Lakes
by this evening. Isolated storms should form in a post-frontal
environment by early afternoon across parts of the Dakotas and
western MN. Even though northwesterly flow will strengthen through
mid levels, moisture across this region will remain quite meager,
and instability is forecast to be very weak.  Although small hail
and gusty winds could occur with these storms, the lack of greater
instability precludes severe hail/wind probabilities.
...Eastern AZ and Western NM...  Low-level moisture should increase
today from northern Mexico into parts of eastern AZ and western NM as
surface high pressure dominates much of the Plains. With the lack of
obvious large-scale forcing mechanisms, isolated to perhaps widely
scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon mainly due to
orographic circulations. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates may
encourage occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds. However, weak
flow through much of the troposphere will likely limit organized
severe potential.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 06/10/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138
PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...  A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the
Plains Tuesday.
...Plains...
Mid-level speed max off the Pacific Coast is forecast to translate
into western MT by the start of the day2 period. This feature should
then dig southeast into OK by Wednesday morning as upper ridging
builds across WA/OR. Large-scale pattern favors a lee trough across
the High Plains and latest guidance supports this low-level boundary
being displaced a bit downstream by peak heating. This feature should
serve as the focus for isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon.
Boundary-layer moisture will be slow to return across this region as
day1 cold front surges deep into northern Mexico and the northwest
Gulf basin. As a result, surface dew points should be mostly in
the 50s prior to convective initiation. Strong heating from the TX
Panhandle into the Dakotas should remove inhibition for initiation
by late afternoon. Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures and steep
lapse rates suggest a few high-based storms could produce gusty
winds and marginally severe hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:      5%
- Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Darrow.. 06/10/2019
 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141
AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX-AR-MO
AND OVER EASTERN TN/KY...
...SUMMARY...  A few strong storms are possible from portions of
southwest Texas into the Missouri Ozarks. Isolated severe may also
occur from eastern Tennessee into eastern Kentucky.
...Discussion...
Day2 northern Rockies 500mb speed max is forecast to dig southeast
across the Plains toward AR by mid day Wednesday. Short-wave trough
affiliated with this feature is expected to sharpen and become
more influential regarding the potential for strong convection
later Wednesday.
Early-week surface high over the Plains will force a cold front deep
into northern Mexico, arcing across the northwestern Gulf basin.
Southerly flow will begin to strengthen across the central Plains
ahead of the short wave Tuesday, but moisture return will be retarded
due to aforementioned low-latitude frontal penetration.  Even so,
strong boundary-layer heating is expected to prove instrumental
in isolated thunderstorm development along an advancing cold front
from MO-AR-TX. While instability is not expected to be particularly
strong, steep lapse rates and strengthening shear suggests convection
that evolves during the afternoon may produce some wind/hail.
Downstream, a narrow corridor of higher-quality moisture is
forecast to advance north around the western periphery of Middle
Atlantic/Carolinas wedge front across eastern TN/KY. This should
allow somewhat higher buoyancy to develop as wind fields strengthen
ahead of approaching trough. Increasingly diffluent high-level
flow during the latter half of the period suggests convection may
increase in areal coverage during the evening hours across this
region. Wind/hail are the primary concerns with this activity.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  An amplified upper ridge will be positioned along the
Pacific coast today. Beneath the ridge, very warm to hot conditions
will span from CA into OR and southeast WA. As a result, RH values
from 10-30 percent region-wide are expected. Some areas of dry fuels
exist, as indicated by latest ERCs from ONCC and NWCC. However,
in the absence of strong surface winds a greater abundance of
critically dry fuels, fire weather concerns will remain limited. Some
strengthening of midlevel flow will occur across parts of the
central Rockies as the upper trough deepens today. Some breezy
downslope westerly winds are possible from south-central WY into
central CO. Concerns will remain low however due to unfavorable
fuel conditions.
..Leitman.. 06/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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