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LU9DCE > ALERT    18.08.18 09:15l 165 Lines 8783 Bytes #9 (0) @ WW
BID : 25781_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 08 2018
Sent: 180818/0701Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:25781 [TORTUGUITAS] $:25781_LU9DC

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228
AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated severe storms will be possible across the
High Plains region this afternoon and evening.
...High Plains...
The northern Rockies mid/upper trough will drop east/southeast into
the Plains today and tonight. A weak low/surface trough will extend
across the western Dakotas into northeast CO, with southerly low
level flow maintaining 60s dewpoints across the region. A cold
front will track eastward across eastern MT/WY into the western
Dakotas and northeast CO by around 21-00z. As height falls ensue,
25-35 kt effective shear will overspread the region. Steepening
midlevel lapse rates and pockets of strong heating will result
in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Convection will initially
develop near higher terrain by midday and shift eastward into the
adjacent High Plains ahead of the surging cold front. Given linear
forcing mechanism and marginal deep layer shear, multicell clusters
and line segments are expected. Strong, locally damaging wind gusts
will be the main concern, though some marginal hail will be possible
in strongest cores or in any cells than can remain discrete given
lapse rates approaching 7-8 C/km.
Across southern portions of the Marginal risk from southwest KS into
the OK/TX Panhandles, ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit
thunderstorm potential for much of the day as destabilization will
be delayed compared to points further north.  This could result in
a more conditional severe threat since any storms developing during
the evening would likely be elevated, diminishing the threat of
strong winds.
...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...
An upper trough will shift eastward from the OH/TN Valley region
to the Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. A moist and unstable
airmass coupled with weak forcing for ascent ahead of the trough
will result in widespread thunderstorm development. Upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints will be in place across the NC/VA Piedmont into
the Chesapeake vicinity. While pockets of moderate instability
are expected, modest deep shear profiles and poor lapse rates will
limit severe potential. Nonetheless, a few strong wind gusts are
possible as PW values approaching 2 inches could result in a wet
microburst or two.
..Leitman/Dean.. 08/18/2018
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated severe storms will be possible mainly Sunday
afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Great Plains,
Ozarks, and Ark-La-Tex region.
...Synopsis...  Moderately strong cyclonic westerlies will
accompany two amplifying shortwave troughs on Sunday, one over the
south-central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley and the other over
the Pacific Northwest.
...South-central Plains/Lower MO Valley/Ark-La-Tex...
Ascent/moisture transport in advance of an amplifying shortwave
trough is likely to yield scattered showers and thunderstorms
especially across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma Sunday morning.
Current thinking is that this scattered early-day precipitation
will continue to spread east-northeastward during the day and limit
destabilization with northward extent across the Ozarks into the
Lower Missouri Valley, effectively limiting the northward progression
of a warm front.
Although mid-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep,
somewhat stronger diurnal heating and destabilization is expected
across southern parts of Oklahoma toward the ArkLaTex on the
southern edge of the scattered early-day precipitation/residual cloud
cover. Ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front across
Oklahoma, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist environment
beneath 30-40 kt mid-level westerlies could support a few supercells
aside from more prevalent multicellular storms.  Isolated damaging
wind gusts will the most probable hazard, but some severe hail
could occur as well. While a sub-regional corridor of somewhat more
focused severe potential could evolve (possible categorical Slight),
will maintain current low probabilities given uncertain mesoscale
factors and limited confidence in spatial details.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Guyer.. 08/18/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...  An upper trough is expected to move eastward from
the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains today. Drier
and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold
front across the northern Rockies, with the greatest thunderstorm
coverage expected to shift eastward out of the northern Rockies
into portions of the northern High Plains.
...Southern ID...Northern/Central UT...Southwest WY...  Modestly
enhanced low-level westerly flow is expected to develop this
afternoon from southern ID into portions of UT and southwest WY,
in the wake of the eastward-moving upper trough. Sustained winds
of 15-20 mph in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-20% will
result in an elevated fire weather threat, with locally critical
conditions possible in terrain-favored locations.
..Dean.. 08/18/2018
...Please see for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...  Another mid/upper-level trough is expected to
progress eastward into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as the
downstream system moves slowly eastward into the central Plains. The
primary fire weather concern will be the potential for thunderstorm
development ahead of the trough across parts of the Northwest into
the northern Rockies.
...Northern/Central OR...Central ID...Far Southeast WA...Western
MT...  After a relatively warm and dry day across portions of the
interior Northwest, increasing large-scale ascent and midlevel
moisture will support the potential for elevated, high-based
thunderstorm development across portions of central/northern
OR and adjacent parts of southeast WA and central ID by early
evening. Relatively fast storm motions and dry subcloud layers
will limit rainfall potential with these storms, resulting in an
isolated dry thunderstorm threat.
Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible across parts
of eastern ID into western MT by late afternoon, largely driven
by sufficient instability and terrain-related circulations. This
area is forecast to be somewhat cooler and more moist compared to
further west, and storm motions will likely be somewhat slower, so
this region has not been included within an isolated dry-thunderstorm
delineation at this time.
..Dean.. 08/18/2018
...Please see for graphic product...


Put a pot of chili on the stove to simmer.  Let it simmer.  Meanwhile,
broil a good steak.  Eat the steak.  Let the chili simmer.  Ignore it.
		-- Recipe for chili from Allan Shrivers, former governor
		   of Texas.

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