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LU9DCE > ALERT    19.08.18 09:30l 166 Lines 9158 Bytes #9 (0) @ WW
BID : 25892_LU9DCE
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 08 2018
Sent: 180819/0718Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:25892 [TORTUGUITAS] $:25892_LU9DC

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...SUMMARY...  Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south
central Plains into Ozark Plateau this afternoon and evening,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...  While the stronger mid-latitude westerlies remain
north of the Canadian/U.S. border, much of the U.S. will remain
under the influence of a weaker branch of westerlies extending from
Pacific Northwest through the Mid Atlantic Coast and adjacent western
Atlantic.  Within this regime, models indicate one low amplitude
wave will gradually progress across and east of the northern Mid
Atlantic coast today through tonight.  A more amplified upstream
wave is forecast to dig southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies,
before turning eastward across the central Plains, while another
wave digs inland of the Oregon/northern California coast.
Guidance is suggestive that the impulse over the interior U.S. may
be accompanied by at least modest cyclogenesis.  A broad/weak
low-level baroclinic zone to the north of the Red River Valley
into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may provide the focus
for the developing surface wave, which is forecast to migrate
northeastward across the central Plains into the lower Missouri
Valley by late tonight.
...South central Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity...  Although
discrepancies exist among the various model output concerning
the details of the developing cyclone, strengthening of lower/mid
tropospheric wind fields to 30-40+ kt within its warm sector appears
possible.  Including considerable veering with height, associated
vertical shear may become potentially supportive of organized severe
weather potential later today through tonight.  The extent of this
potential, however, remains at least somewhat unclear.
The lack of stronger instability may be one considerable limiting
factor.  The continuation of ongoing convective development, now
spreading east/southeast of the central and southern High Plains,
into the day may hinder insolation and associated warm sector
boundary layer destabilization.  And mid-level lapse rates probably
will not be especially steep.
However, in the wake, or on the southern periphery, of lingering
early day convection, guidance is suggestive that moderate
mixed-layer CAPE may develop across central and eastern Oklahoma
into Arkansas by late this afternoon or evening.  Coupled with
forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection and
perhaps differential cyclonic vorticity advection, discrete storms
(possibly including a couple of supercells), and a few small upscale
growing convective clusters and/or bands, may evolve.  Some of this
will probably be accompanied by a risk for severe wind and hail.
An isolated tornado or two might not be out of the question.
..Kerr/Leitman.. 08/19/2018
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...SUMMARY...  Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday across the Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley to Tennessee
Valley as well as the Northern Rockies.
...Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley to Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...  On
Monday, a shortwave trough will continue to spread east-northeastward
over the middle Mississippi River Valley and Midwest. Even as
this system begins to lose amplitude, a belt of seasonally strong
low/mid tropospheric winds will overspread parts of the Mid-South,
Tennessee Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley. The potential for
relatively widespread cloud cover and precipitation still casts
uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude/extent of Monday's
severe risk. This uncertainty precludes a categorical Slight Risk,
although one could ultimately be warranted somewhere across the
Mid-South and middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, possibly as far
north as portions of Illinois.
Regardless, potentially influenced by differential heating and
outflows, storms should diurnally redevelop and intensify across
the Mid-South region along, or more so, ahead of a cold front amidst
moist/confluent low-level flow during the afternoon. The exact degree
of destabilization is especially more uncertain with northward extent
into the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but bands of storms could develop
near the front/surface low during the afternoon pending sufficient
destabilization in the wake of early-day convection. Overall,
flow fields generally characterized by 30-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes would support sustained multicells and a few supercells
capable of primarily wind damage Monday afternoon and evening,
although some hail and tornado risk may exist as well.
...Northern Rockies...  Forcing for ascent and moderately strong
winds aloft will accompany a deamplifying shortwave trough over the
region. Coincident with ample vertical shear (40+ kt effective),
it appears that sufficient moisture and buoyancy will exist over
the region for the possibility of some stronger storms capable of
hail and/or downbursts Monday afternoon and early evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Guyer.. 08/19/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...  ...Pacific Northwest...
A shortwave trough will track east across WA/OR today and tonight.
As the trough moves inland, cooling midlevel temperatures will
result in steepening lapse rates atop modest boundary layer
moisture. By peak heating, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast and
isolated thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon and into
the nighttime hours. PW values will range from around 0.6-0.8 inches
with very dry sub-cloud layers indicated in forecast soundings. As a
result, wetting rains are not expected and isolated dry thunderstorms
will pose a threat for new ignitions.
..Leitman.. 08/19/2018
...Please see for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...  ...Northern NV Vicinity...
As the Pacific Northwest trough strengthens, deep layer
west/southwesterly flow will increase across portions of the northern
Great Basin and northern Rockies. Downslope westerly surface winds
will increase as strong heating across northern NV leads to a deeply
mixed boundary layer. Sustained winds around 10-15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph will be possible as RH values fall into the single digits
to 15 percent, leading to elevated fire weather conditions.
...Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies...
The upper trough will not move much compared to Day 1, but will be
strengthening over the region. Thunderstorm chances will continue
across portions of WA/OR and far northern CA, and spread eastward
into central ID and far western MT. PW values will range from
around 0.6-1.0 inches, with the higher values further east. Even
with the higher PW values, stronger deep layer flow will lead to
faster storm motion and wetting rains will be sparse. In addition
to the threat of new lightning ignitions, stronger deep layer shear
will increase the chance for gusty and erratic winds, especially
across central ID into western MT (see Day 2 Convective Outlook
for severe thunderstorm concerns).
..Leitman.. 08/19/2018
...Please see for graphic product...


Put a pot of chili on the stove to simmer.  Let it simmer.  Meanwhile,
broil a good steak.  Eat the steak.  Let the chili simmer.  Ignore it.
		-- Recipe for chili from Allan Shrivers, former governor
		   of Texas.

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