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LU9DCE > ALERT    11.06.19 09:15l 168 Lines 9119 Bytes #3 (0) @ WW
BID : 26522_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 11 06
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190611/0700Z 26522@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds may occur across parts of central
Kansas into western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle late this
afternoon and evening.  Other storms may develop across portions
of the northern and central Plains this afternoon with a threat
for strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail.
...Synopsis...  Large-scale upper troughing over central Canada, the
Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes will undergo gradual amplification
into the mid MS Valley through the period. Multiple shortwave
troughs will rotate around the base of this upper trough from the
northern/central Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a trough
will advance eastward across the Plains, while a low slowly deepens
across northeastern NM and the western TX Panhandle.
...KS/OK/TX Panhandle...  With a recent prior frontal passage across
the southern Plains, low-level moisture will remain limited today
across the southern/central Plains. Even so, most short-term guidance
suggests low to mid 50s surface dewpoints should advect northward
in a narrow corridor across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK,
and into central KS by late afternoon. This seems reasonable based
on recent surface observations across the southern Plains. Strong
diurnal heating is expected to the east of the surface trough,
and both low- and mid-level lapse rates will steepen across this
region. Resultant MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000-2000
J/kg range through peak afternoon heating. A mid/upper-level jet
on the western periphery of the large-scale upper trough described
previously is forecast to overspread this region in the 21-03Z
time frame, and effective bulk shear will likewise increase into
the 40-50 kt range.
Isolated thunderstorms will probably initiate by late afternoon/early
evening along the surface trough as ascent preceding the
mid/upper-level jet overspreads this region. The forecast combination
of instability and shear will support high-based supercells capable
of producing both large hail and severe wind gusts. There still
remains some concern regarding overall storm coverage, but there
is enough signal in short-term guidance suggesting at least a
couple supercells will develop across this area to support an
increase in severe hail/wind probabilities and upgrade to Slight
risk. This severe threat should lessen with eastward extent into
eastern KS/central OK as inhibition quickly increases through the
late evening.
...Northern/Central Plains...  Moisture and related instability
should remain more limited with northward extent into the
northern/central Plains today. However, mid-level temperatures
beneath the upper trough will be rather cool, and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by the early afternoon
along/ahead of the surface trough from the Dakotas southward into
central/eastern NE. Marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds
may occur with the most robust convection as it moves generally
southeastward through the early evening. But, mid-level winds
and effective bulk shear are both forecast to remain on the lower
margins for supporting organized updrafts.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 06/11/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS
OF THE COUNTRY FROM WEST TX TO NC...
...SUMMARY...  A few strong storms are possible across pockets of
the US from west Texas to coastal Carolinas. Wind and hail are the
primary threats.
...Discussion...
Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a notable
mid-level speed max will dig southeast across the High Plains into
the base of central US trough over northern MS by 13/00z. This
feature will eject into the southern Appalachians during the
overnight hours along with an attendant increase in large-scale
forcing for ascent.
Early in the period, convection is expected to be ongoing along a
cold front across the lower MO Valley into northeast OK. Strong
heating ahead of the wind shift is expected to aid buoyancy
through steepening lapse rates across the Ozarks, primarily north
of aforementioned digging jet. Will maintain 5% severe probs across
this region due to dryer than normal boundary layer. A few strong
storms may also develop along the surging front across portions of
west TX where strong heating should remove CINH.
Downstream, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will advance
north across the eastern TN Valley around the western periphery of
wedge front in the lee of the Appalachians. Latest guidance suggest
surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast
AL into southeast IN. As exit region of approaching jet affects
this zone of instability, convection should readily develop by
early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there
is some concern severe probs may need to be raised to account for
this increasingly dynamic system.
As mid-level heights fall across the southern Appalachians during
the latter half of the period, a surface wave should evolve along
coastal front over southeast GA/southern SC. This feature should
lift north-northeast and may allow more moist/buoyant air mass to
return to eastern NC. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account
for convection that should develop within an increasingly sheared
environment during the overnight hours.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Darrow.. 06/11/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  An amplified upper ridge along the Pacific coast
this morning will shift eastward toward the Great Basin/northern
Rockies vicinity. Hot temperatures and low RH values will persist
across much of CA into OR and eastern WA, continuing to dry out
fuels in areas of the Pacific Northwest states. However, in the
absence of stronger surface winds, fire concerns will remain limited.
Elsewhere, the broad trough across the Plains will deepen as it
shifts eastward toward the MS River. This will bring a belt of strong
northwesterly mid/upper level flow over the northern/central Rockies
and breezy downslope winds are possible across parts of WY, CO and
NM. While RH will be low, fuels across the region are unfavorable
for large fires at this time.
..Leitman.. 06/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...  A pattern shift will take place on Wednesday as a
weak shortwave trough develops southeastward over the Pacific coast,
breaking down the ridge. Temperatures will still be quite warm from
the CA central valley into lower elevations of OR/WA, continuing
the trend of drying fuels. As heights fall with the arrival of
the trough and temperatures cool aloft, isolated thunderstorms
may develop across parts of northern CA into OR. PW values are
forecast to be less than about 0.75 in but storm motion will be
rather slow. Regardless, QPF likely will be limited. Where fuels
are sufficiently dry, a few ignitions could occur with isolated
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and possibly continuing
into the overnight hours.
Elsewhere, dry and seasonally warm temperatures will spread across
much of the Great Basin but winds will be light. Dry conditions
also will overspread portions of the Plains behind a cold front
in building surface high pressure, but largely unfavorable fuel
conditions and weakening surface winds behind the frontal passage
will limit concerns.
..Leitman.. 06/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Did you know that the voice tapes easily identify the Russian pilot that
shot down the Korean jet?  At one point he definitely states:

	"Natasha!  First we shoot jet, then we go after moose and squirrel."

		-- ihuxw!tommyo

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