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LU9DCE > ALERT    12.05.19 09:15l 173 Lines 9447 Bytes #3 (0) @ WW
BID : 23999_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 05
Path: ED1ZAC<ED1ZAC<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190512/0701Z 23999@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CDT Sun May 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...  Scattered severe storms with severe wind gusts are
possible from eastern Alabama to the Carolinas on Sunday. Other
marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
High Plains Sunday afternoon.
...Portions of the Southeast...  Mid-level flow will gradually
increase throughout the day in response to an approaching mid-level
wave over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Meanwhile, a front will
extend from central Virginia southwestward to southeastern Louisiana
by mid-afternoon.  Surface cyclogenesis will occur along the front
across central Virginia and vicinity.  Meanwhile, southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 60s dewpoints
ahead of the front, and although scattered convection should be
ongoing in portions of the region throughout the morning, pockets
of strong insolation will result in development of weak to moderate
surface-based instability (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) by afternoon.
Models generally depict scattered deepening convection through the
afternoon - especially across the Slight risk area.  These storms
should tend to grow upscale into linear bands and forward-propagate
from west-southwest to east-northeast throughout the day given
the strong west-southwesterly mid-level flow and unidirectional
vertical wind profiles.  Downward momentum processes within
downdrafts will result in a risk of damaging wind gusts especially
with any linear segments.  An isolated instance of hail cannot be
completely ruled out.  Some uncertainty exists regarding degree of
destabilization from central NC into southeastern VA with expected
convection during the morning hours.  It is likely that some portions
of the Slight risk (and associated 15% wind probabilities) will need
to be reconfigured once the extent of destabilization is clearer
in this area.  Storms should generally persist into the overnight
hours, although a weakening is expected after sunset with the loss
of boundary-layer heating.
...Portions of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico...  A cut-off
low over northwestern Mexico will begin the process of evolve into
an open wave late in the forecast period while migrating eastward.
As this occurs, an axis of 35-45 knot mid-level flow will extend
from the Transpecos eastward atop very light southeasterly low-level
flow.  Meanwhile, steep (7-8 deg C/km) mid-level lapse rates will
persist and surface heating will result in minimal inhibition
by mid-afternoon.  A few thunderstorms are expected to develop
in higher terrain and migrate eastward during the afternoon, with
deep shear supportive or organization into multicells or loosely
organized clusters.  These storms should be outflow dominant given
weak boundary layer flow, though steep lapse rates will result in
isolated hail and wind beneath the strongest cores.  These storms
should weaken and become elevated overnight with nocturnal boundary
layer cooling/stabilization.
..Cook/Squitieri.. 05/12/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CDT Sat May 11 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...  A few storms may produce hail across parts of Texas
on Monday.
...Synopsis...  An upper trough will move across northeastern states
on Monday with a 60-70 kt midlevel jet max over North Carolina. A
surface low will develop offshore, with a cold front clearing
most of the East Coast by 18Z. Farther south, the front will move
slower into northern FL, where around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE will exist,
supporting a few thunderstorms during the day. In general, veering
850 mb winds will bring drier air across the East, which will reduce
the thunderstorm threat.
To the west, an upper low will move into southwest TX during the day,
and into central TX overnight. Lift associated with this feature
along with gradual moisture return will result in scattered storms
from west to east throughout the period, with damaging hail possible.
...Much of southwest, central, and southern TX...  Storms are
expected to evolve early in the day over far west TX near the upper
low. Marginal hail is possible with the early activity. As heating
continues and the storms move east along the moist axis, an uptick in
severe hail intensity is possible. Very long hodographs will exist,
with 100+ kt 300 mb winds atop weak easterly surface winds. These
wind profiles suggest efficient, forward-tilting storms capable of
damaging hail through the evening and overnight.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:      5%
- Marginal Hail:     15%     - Slight
..Jewell.. 05/12/2019
 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229
AM CDT Sun May 12 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated severe storms producing hail are possible
over much of Nebraska on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...  Generally dry conditions will persist
across much of the East with an upper low over New England and high
pressure extending from the Appalachians into east Texas. An upper
ridge will exist over the Rockies, and will gradually shift east
toward the High Plains.  Northwest flow aloft will extend from the
northern Plains to the Mid Atlantic, maintaining relatively cool
temperatures aloft.
Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will spread northward
across the central Plains, aided by southerly winds on the west
side of the high. Strong heating will occur over the High Plains,
resulting in perhaps 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across NE, KS, MO and IA. The
greatest threat for a few severe storms will be during the late
afternoon across central NE where steep lapse rates will develop
at peak heating. Weak surface convergence will lead to a few storms
capable of hail as they move southeastward during the evening.
Elsewhere, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts
of MO and IL, in a zone of 850 mb warm advection out of the west,
and beneath the northwesterly flow aloft.
..Jewell.. 05/12/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  An upper-level trough will progress across the
central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level ridge fortifying across the
western CONUS, and a 500 mb cutoff low approaching Texas during the
day. At the surface, much of the western CONUS will be dominated
by high pressure, with a thermal trough developing along an axis
from far western Arizona into central California.
Relatively dry, breezy surface conditions resulting from downslope
westerly flow may be expected along the leeward side of the Cascades,
across portions of central Washington/Oregon. Surface wind speeds are
expected to generally remain below 15 mph in this region, precluding
an elevated delineation at this time. Otherwise, relatively quiescent
fire weather conditions are expected across the rest of the U.S.
..Squitieri.. 05/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  Large scale upper-level ridging will dominate the
western and central CONUS for much of Day 2/Monday, with a mid-level
trough and associated stronger winds aloft beginning to impinge on
the Pacific Northwest towards the end of the period. At the surface,
high pressure is expected to remain in place across the Central
Rockies/Four Corners regions, with low pressure developing in the
Pacific Northwest in tandem with the approach of the aforementioned
upper-level trough.
Relatively strong surface westerly flow will coincide the ridge
axis across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern
Rockies areas, but relatively moist surface conditions and recent
accumulated rainfall atop fine fuels will temper wildfire concerns
in this region. Elsewhere, relatively weak surface flow, moist
low-level conditions, recent accumulated and/or forecast rainfall,
or any combination of these factors will limit the potential for
robust wildfire conditions.
..Squitieri.. 05/12/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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